To be clear, currently I think it's likely within the next 10 years we'll have ASI. But I think it's also quite possible that we won't have ASI for 20-30 years,

To be clear, currently I think it's likely within the next 10 years we'll have ASI. But I think it's also quite possible that we won't have ASI for 20-30 years, and it's quite possible that moderate advancements in AI will be destabilising enough that we never reach ASI. I think a lot of people who talk about AI risk underweight the fairly likely scenario that highly capable narrow AIs are leveraged in ways that lead to civilisational collapse. Humans getting to ASI assumes that prior advancements are not destabilising or if they are destabilising the advancements happen quickly enough that it doesn't matter. That said, I think ASI is more likely that not. And I think ASI within 5-10 years is very likely.