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The actions on the US-Israel side so far (deeply cutting non-defense discretionary spending, decoupling from international trade, assassinating secular leaders
by whatshisface 1y ago
The actions on the US-Israel side so far (deeply cutting non-defense discretionary spending, decoupling from international trade, assassinating secular leaders who can be replaced, bombing three locations which can be rebuilt) only make sense as the near-term prelude to a major ground invasion. If the invasion doesn't happen the US will be left with a self-inflicted economic growth wound and no way to explain it, and Israel will be left with an adversary that believes itself to be facing an existential risk, that is able to enrich uranium, and that would not trust any treaty negotiations.
- cosmicgadget 1y agoThe self-inflicted economic wound is nothing more than Trumpnomics. If the numbers look bad he will just say they are fake or solved by GDP growth or tariff revenue. Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Nothing has changed with these strikes. Bombing nuclear facilities and killing scientists kicks the can down the road and that has worked for decades. But the US/Israel coalition is also trying to negotiate or orchestrate regime change, which could provide a more lasting impact.
- ToucanLoucan 1y ago> Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Every respected strategist said the exact same fucking thing about Iraq before we killed 17 years there. Didn't stop us from trying and failing.
- cosmicgadget 1y agoYou realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah?
- amy214 1y ago>You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah? Well, the hand and the head are different body parts, but one controls the other
- ndsipa_pomu 1y ago> You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah? citation needed
- InitialLastName 1y agoThe population of Israel is 1/9 the population of Iran. The population of the US in 2003 was 10x the population of Iraq. Huge difference in what it takes to actually attempt to occupy a foreign country with a hostile populace.
- geoka9 1y ago> But the US/Israel coalition is also trying to negotiate or orchestrate regime change, which could provide a more lasting impact. Are there any credible signs of this?
- cosmicgadget 1y agoI don't think anyone has said so beyond, of course, "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" Considering how far Israel has gone in Gaza, I wouldn't rule out them pursuing maximized goals in Iran.
- stickfigure 1y agoIf the ground invasion doesn't happen, will you come here and openly admit "I was wrong and need to adjust my priors"?
- Eddy_Viscosity2 1y agoDid you believe Trump and his people when they campaigned on not attacking Iran while claiming repeatedly that Harris would if elected. If so did can you admit you were wrong and need to adjust your priors?
- stickfigure 1y agoI have never believed a word that comes out of Trump's mouth. My priors are holding up just fine.
- biofunsf 1y agoWas this really a Trump campaign promise? Can't find it online credible and genuinely curious. Also tried here https://archive.ph/76zVk https://archive.ph/76zVk
- whatshisface 1y agoRealistically speaking I don't see how we would get credible evidence that there would not be a permanent war, not when so many people have been trying to create one for so long. Who would be able to promise that? I can't give you a prediction with timing either, because Israel would have to claim that Iran had rebuilt its facilities for the US to get pulled back in again, and an outsider has no way of telling when they would choose to do that.