3 ms·

Why do you assume the US will invade?

platevoltage 1y ago
Because we've all been here before. This time we are led in by someone who is just as stupid, but with several times more malicious intent.
- stickfigure 1y ago
  We've also bombed places without invading. I share your opinion of Trump, but even a stopped clock...
leptons 1y ago
Both the US and Israel currently have leaders that have to be seen as "wartime leaders" to extend their rule beyond what their respective country's laws usually permit, because otherwise they both very likely will end up in prison.
- cosmicgadget 1y ago
  Bibi, yes. Trump is in the clear. The immunity decision means that successfully prosecuting a president will take years.
  - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
    I genuinely think hell will freeze over before we see an American president face justice.
    - cosmicgadget 1y ago
      We would have if he hadn't been reelected or if some of the prosecutions were not so ambitious.
      - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
        I admire your faith in the system. Neither party wants to see presidents prosecuted, because basically every president remaining alive could be easily convicted of a slough of war crimes and other crimes against humanity for their actions in perpetuating the American Empire. This isn't even to say they are individually imperialists, but every last one, as soon as they take the oath of office, immediately begins getting their hands soaked, drenched in blood. They can't not. That's what the system does and that's all it can do. And the few candidates who ran on the idea that that should be changed were roundly rejected by their associated party, and an independent has received, at most, 5% of the vote? Nah. Trump was never going to see anything, even for his particularly egregious offenses. I knew it in 2018 and I still know it. If he ever faces the most meager iota of consequences I'll eat my favorite hat, and post video here.
        cosmicgadget 1y ago
        Except that Trump was being actively prosecuted when he was re-elected. By the DOJ, by a special prosecutor, and by the Atlanta DA. None of these were performative, none were condemned by the party in charge, all had a fairly high probability of eventual conviction. "War crimes" and "crimes against humanity" sound a lot like offenses to so-called international law (cough, treaties).
        ToucanLoucan 1y ago
        > By the DOJ, by a special prosecutor, and by the Atlanta DA. None of these were performative, none were condemned by the party in charge, all had a fairly high probability of eventual conviction. What does that matter when getting elected was apparently all he needed to dodge the entire thing? There's no evidence at all that said prosecution will resume when (if?) he leaves the White House, he's had free reign to demolish the case against him while in power, and again, all of this hinges on the Justice system actually holding a president accountable for crimes, international or otherwise, which has yet to be done, ever. Even NIXON didn't actually get prosecuted for anything and (at least before Trump) he was the most crooked president ever, and his crooked actions in office persist to this day in the form of the war on drugs. When you're president, apparently, crime is just legal. It was for Nixon, and it has thus far for Trump.
  - leptons 1y ago
    Trump has been suggesting he deserves a 3rd term. The codified limit is 2 terms.
    - cosmicgadget 1y ago
      He says he deserves a lot of things.
- edanm 1y ago
  This is not true of Bibi. No law limits how much he can serve. The only legal block for him remaining in power is that he's undergoing various criminal trials, which may or may not end with him being found guilty. There is, of course, a lot of pressure for him to resign or for various other things to happen that he is currently managing to put on hold due to the war, but that's legal, and doesn't require wartime. Absent all that, he faces elections in 2026.
  - leptons 1y ago
    It is true of Bibi that he should be in prison instead of leading Israel, for many reasons. There's speculation that he knew about Oct 7th before it happened, and let it happen so that he could maintain his power. Now it's war with Iran. I'm really not sure how far he would go to stay in power.
A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 1y ago
While I am first to admit that my basic assumptions have been severely tested by the last news cycle, I do think it is very naive to think this is the end of hostilities.
whatshisface 1y ago
The actions on the US-Israel side so far (deeply cutting non-defense discretionary spending, decoupling from international trade, assassinating secular leaders who can be replaced, bombing three locations which can be rebuilt) only make sense as the near-term prelude to a major ground invasion. If the invasion doesn't happen the US will be left with a self-inflicted economic growth wound and no way to explain it, and Israel will be left with an adversary that believes itself to be facing an existential risk, that is able to enrich uranium, and that would not trust any treaty negotiations.
- cosmicgadget 1y ago
  The self-inflicted economic wound is nothing more than Trumpnomics. If the numbers look bad he will just say they are fake or solved by GDP growth or tariff revenue. Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Nothing has changed with these strikes. Bombing nuclear facilities and killing scientists kicks the can down the road and that has worked for decades. But the US/Israel coalition is also trying to negotiate or orchestrate regime change, which could provide a more lasting impact.
  - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
    > Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Every respected strategist said the exact same fucking thing about Iraq before we killed 17 years there. Didn't stop us from trying and failing.
    - cosmicgadget 1y ago
      You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah?
      - amy214 1y ago
        >You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah? Well, the hand and the head are different body parts, but one controls the other

Because we've all been here before. This time we are led in by someone who is just as stupid, but with several times more malicious intent.

stickfigure 1y ago
We've also bombed places without invading. I share your opinion of Trump, but even a stopped clock...

leptons 1y ago

Both the US and Israel currently have leaders that have to be seen as "wartime leaders" to extend their rule beyond what their respective country's laws usually permit, because otherwise they both very likely will end up in prison.

cosmicgadget 1y ago
Bibi, yes. Trump is in the clear. The immunity decision means that successfully prosecuting a president will take years.
- ToucanLoucan 1y ago
  I genuinely think hell will freeze over before we see an American president face justice.
  - cosmicgadget 1y ago
    We would have if he hadn't been reelected or if some of the prosecutions were not so ambitious.
    - ToucanLoucan 1y ago
      I admire your faith in the system. Neither party wants to see presidents prosecuted, because basically every president remaining alive could be easily convicted of a slough of war crimes and other crimes against humanity for their actions in perpetuating the American Empire. This isn't even to say they are individually imperialists, but every last one, as soon as they take the oath of office, immediately begins getting their hands soaked, drenched in blood. They can't not. That's what the system does and that's all it can do. And the few candidates who ran on the idea that that should be changed were roundly rejected by their associated party, and an independent has received, at most, 5% of the vote? Nah. Trump was never going to see anything, even for his particularly egregious offenses. I knew it in 2018 and I still know it. If he ever faces the most meager iota of consequences I'll eat my favorite hat, and post video here.
      - cosmicgadget 1y ago
        Except that Trump was being actively prosecuted when he was re-elected. By the DOJ, by a special prosecutor, and by the Atlanta DA. None of these were performative, none were condemned by the party in charge, all had a fairly high probability of eventual conviction. "War crimes" and "crimes against humanity" sound a lot like offenses to so-called international law (cough, treaties).
        ToucanLoucan 1y ago
        > By the DOJ, by a special prosecutor, and by the Atlanta DA. None of these were performative, none were condemned by the party in charge, all had a fairly high probability of eventual conviction. What does that matter when getting elected was apparently all he needed to dodge the entire thing? There's no evidence at all that said prosecution will resume when (if?) he leaves the White House, he's had free reign to demolish the case against him while in power, and again, all of this hinges on the Justice system actually holding a president accountable for crimes, international or otherwise, which has yet to be done, ever. Even NIXON didn't actually get prosecuted for anything and (at least before Trump) he was the most crooked president ever, and his crooked actions in office persist to this day in the form of the war on drugs. When you're president, apparently, crime is just legal. It was for Nixon, and it has thus far for Trump.
- leptons 1y ago
  Trump has been suggesting he deserves a 3rd term. The codified limit is 2 terms.
  - cosmicgadget 1y ago
    He says he deserves a lot of things.
edanm 1y ago
This is not true of Bibi. No law limits how much he can serve. The only legal block for him remaining in power is that he's undergoing various criminal trials, which may or may not end with him being found guilty. There is, of course, a lot of pressure for him to resign or for various other things to happen that he is currently managing to put on hold due to the war, but that's legal, and doesn't require wartime. Absent all that, he faces elections in 2026.
- leptons 1y ago
  It is true of Bibi that he should be in prison instead of leading Israel, for many reasons. There's speculation that he knew about Oct 7th before it happened, and let it happen so that he could maintain his power. Now it's war with Iran. I'm really not sure how far he would go to stay in power.

A4ET8a8uTh0_v2 1y ago

While I am first to admit that my basic assumptions have been severely tested by the last news cycle, I do think it is very naive to think this is the end of hostilities.

whatshisface 1y ago

The actions on the US-Israel side so far (deeply cutting non-defense discretionary spending, decoupling from international trade, assassinating secular leaders who can be replaced, bombing three locations which can be rebuilt) only make sense as the near-term prelude to a major ground invasion. If the invasion doesn't happen the US will be left with a self-inflicted economic growth wound and no way to explain it, and Israel will be left with an adversary that believes itself to be facing an existential risk, that is able to enrich uranium, and that would not trust any treaty negotiations.

cosmicgadget 1y ago
The self-inflicted economic wound is nothing more than Trumpnomics. If the numbers look bad he will just say they are fake or solved by GDP growth or tariff revenue. Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Nothing has changed with these strikes. Bombing nuclear facilities and killing scientists kicks the can down the road and that has worked for decades. But the US/Israel coalition is also trying to negotiate or orchestrate regime change, which could provide a more lasting impact.
- ToucanLoucan 1y ago
  > Iran already knows that Israel can decapitate them at will, but not occupy them. Every respected strategist said the exact same fucking thing about Iraq before we killed 17 years there. Didn't stop us from trying and failing.
  - cosmicgadget 1y ago
    You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah?
    - amy214 1y ago
      >You realize that Israel and the United States are different countries, yeah? Well, the hand and the head are different body parts, but one controls the other