> AGI won't come anytime in 20X, where X is under 40 Honestly, I think that's quite generous. And I only phrase it that way, rather than more like "that X shou

> AGI won't come anytime in 20X, where X is under 40 Honestly, I think that's quite generous. And I only phrase it that way, rather than more like "that X should be 99" because trying to predict more than about 15 years out in tech, especially when it comes to breakthroughs, is a fool's errand. But that's what it's going to take to reach AGI: a genuine unforeseeable breakthrough that lets us do new things with machine learning/AI that we fundamentally couldn't do before. Just feeding LLMs more and more stuff won't get them there—and they're already way into the diminishing-returns territory.