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The asteroid detection capability is amazing: https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-look/swarm-asteroids https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-l

by krunck 1y ago

The asteroid detection capability is amazing: https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-look/swarm-asteroids https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-look/swarm-ast...

cogman10 1y ago
This is really going to revolutionize our ability to detect and predict asteroid impact.
- stronglikedan 1y ago
  And just in the nick of time!
jstummbillig 1y ago
That is likely the most unexcitedly unsettling video I have ever seen. Amazing storytelling really.
- stronglikedan 1y ago
  I was just coming back to comment on the existential dread elicited by that video.
- semireg 1y ago
  It’s like swimming in a lake or river and thinking the water is just water but then you take a closer look and it’s just incredibly alive to the point of absurdity.
  - steve_adams_86 1y ago
    I suppose the weeds, bugs, bacteria, frogs, fish, and snakes are equally unlikely to harm us, but nonetheless. Holy shit!
m3kw9 1y ago
Which also tells the astronomical low odds of asteroids hitting earth even with “so many” of them. To me it changes nothing
- bjt 1y ago
  If it has the potential to wipe out our entire species, but there's something we could do to prevent it (which I'm not sure about w/r/to asteroids), then it's worth looking out for the black swan event. Doing some extremely rough math along these lines to double check myself: * Gemini says that a dinosaur-extincting asteroid hits Earth about once every 100 million years. So in any given year that's 0.000001%. * Economists say a human life is worth about 10 million dollars. There are about 8 billion people on Earth. So the total value of all human life is $80,000,000,000,000,000 (or 8e+16). * So in any given year, the present value of asteroid protection is $800,000,000 (likelihood of an impact that year times value of the human life it would wipe out). * The Guardian says the Vera Rubin telescope cost about $2,000,000,000 (2 billion). By that measure, assuming the Rubin telescope prevents any dinosaur-extinction-level asteroid impacts, it will pay for itself in three years. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
  - myrmidon 1y ago
    These numbers are not what I expected at all. So you could actually make an argument that to a country like the US, full 100% reliable asteroid protection is only worth like $50M/year (even if an impact means full extinction)? So if upkeep for a detection/deflection system costs more than that we'd be "better off" just risking it?! Thats insane. I would have expected this number to be much higher than $50M/year.
    - andruby 1y ago
      The economists calculated the value of 1 life. The calculation might be different if it extinguishes the whole of humanity (and thousands of other species). In a way, it also presents all future human lives. Should we include those?
boznz 1y ago
Wow, they should have led with this.
jcims 1y ago
Whoa that's incredible. (And amazing production of the actual video as well) Pretty sure you can see some kind of masking for satellites in some of the frames of the asteroid videos.
mrbluecoat 1y ago
And supernovae: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch18t9cz-JU&pp=ygUETHNzdA%3D%3D https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch18t9cz-JU&pp=ygUETHNzdA%3D%3... Among many other uses: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h6QYjNjivDE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h6QYjNjivDE
KurSix 1y ago
I can't wait to see what it turns up once it's running full tilt

by krunck 1y ago

The asteroid detection capability is amazing: https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-look/swarm-asteroids https://rubinobservatory.org/news/rubin-first-look/swarm-ast...

cogman10 1y ago

This is really going to revolutionize our ability to detect and predict asteroid impact.

stronglikedan 1y ago
And just in the nick of time!

jstummbillig 1y ago

That is likely the most unexcitedly unsettling video I have ever seen. Amazing storytelling really.

stronglikedan 1y ago
I was just coming back to comment on the existential dread elicited by that video.
semireg 1y ago
It’s like swimming in a lake or river and thinking the water is just water but then you take a closer look and it’s just incredibly alive to the point of absurdity.
- steve_adams_86 1y ago
  I suppose the weeds, bugs, bacteria, frogs, fish, and snakes are equally unlikely to harm us, but nonetheless. Holy shit!

m3kw9 1y ago

Which also tells the astronomical low odds of asteroids hitting earth even with “so many” of them. To me it changes nothing

bjt 1y ago
If it has the potential to wipe out our entire species, but there's something we could do to prevent it (which I'm not sure about w/r/to asteroids), then it's worth looking out for the black swan event. Doing some extremely rough math along these lines to double check myself: * Gemini says that a dinosaur-extincting asteroid hits Earth about once every 100 million years. So in any given year that's 0.000001%. * Economists say a human life is worth about 10 million dollars. There are about 8 billion people on Earth. So the total value of all human life is $80,000,000,000,000,000 (or 8e+16). * So in any given year, the present value of asteroid protection is $800,000,000 (likelihood of an impact that year times value of the human life it would wipe out). * The Guardian says the Vera Rubin telescope cost about $2,000,000,000 (2 billion). By that measure, assuming the Rubin telescope prevents any dinosaur-extinction-level asteroid impacts, it will pay for itself in three years. https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/835571843
- myrmidon 1y ago
  These numbers are not what I expected at all. So you could actually make an argument that to a country like the US, full 100% reliable asteroid protection is only worth like $50M/year (even if an impact means full extinction)? So if upkeep for a detection/deflection system costs more than that we'd be "better off" just risking it?! Thats insane. I would have expected this number to be much higher than $50M/year.
  - andruby 1y ago
    The economists calculated the value of 1 life. The calculation might be different if it extinguishes the whole of humanity (and thousands of other species). In a way, it also presents all future human lives. Should we include those?

boznz 1y ago

Wow, they should have led with this.

jcims 1y ago

Whoa that's incredible. (And amazing production of the actual video as well) Pretty sure you can see some kind of masking for satellites in some of the frames of the asteroid videos.

mrbluecoat 1y ago

And supernovae: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch18t9cz-JU&pp=ygUETHNzdA%3D%3D https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch18t9cz-JU&pp=ygUETHNzdA%3D%3... Among many other uses: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h6QYjNjivDE https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=h6QYjNjivDE

KurSix 1y ago

I can't wait to see what it turns up once it's running full tilt