> No, nor have I said a ground invasion will happen Oof, OK, I suppose not, you only said "The [my emphasis] ground invasion hasn't started yet". There is som

> No, nor have I said a ground invasion will happen Oof, OK, I suppose not, you only said "The [my emphasis] ground invasion hasn't started yet". There is some degree of ambiguity there. Forgive me for thinking you were saying one will happen. > The goals of israel are regime change and nuclear disarmament -- these cannot be achieved from the air. Ah! Is that a prediction you insist will happen? That there will be no regime change and no end to Iran's military nuclear programme without a ground invasion? Great! That's a testable hypothesis. Let's see. > It's also an inherently ridiculous thing to say -- if I am wrong about highly complex geostrategic outcomes then i should never think about them again? No, not at all (and I certainly didn't say "think", I said "speculate"). It's just a way of seeing if you put your money where your mouth is. If there is an incentive to someone predicting wrongly I'm more likely to take them seriously!