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I don't think we have a historical precedence to what is happening here. The closest would be Israel's attack on Hezbollah which literally collapsed and led to
by YZF 1y ago
I don't think we have a historical precedence to what is happening here. The closest would be Israel's attack on Hezbollah which literally collapsed and led to the collapse of the Syrian regime as well.
The Iranian regime is very centralized and with Israel and the USA having air superiority and having penetrated it completely from an intelligence perspective (see Israel's perfect knowledge of the whereabouts of the previous chief of staff and the newly appointed chief of staff) it's going to be very hard for it to survive if a decision is made to remove it. There are a handful of key people that once gone there is not going to be any continuity.
The current regime is allowed to continue because of fear of chaos if it is removed, not because there isn't a capability to remove it.
- birn559 1y agoSound like it's very realistic that Israel will target the regime itself soon. I don't think the US will actively support it, though.
- samrus 1y agopeople didnt think the US would support this bombing. the "nothing ever happens" bet isnt looking good right now
- arandomusername 1y agoIsrael can't execute regime change by themselves, so US will definitely get involved.
- jeromegv 1y agoSyria regime changed was made by troops on the ground. Again, no bombing campaigns led to a change of regime. This theory is proven again and again
- YZF 1y agoThe troops on the ground were only able to act because the regime has been weakened. But yes, someone in Iran would need to somehow actively do something.