4 ms·

Even if the regime doesn't survive, what's our track record in Iranian regime change like? What are the chances people there swallow their pride and roll over?

Even if the regime doesn't survive, what's our track record in Iranian regime change like? What are the chances people there swallow their pride and roll over? If anything, Khomeini is probably a moderate compared to a lot of what we could end up with after 'regime change' (lol)

mrtksn 1y ago
I guess it’s all about how it’s handled afterwards. Germany and Japan have become huge US allies after some proper bombings. Just recently Trump tried to troll the Germany’s leader for it and only got a “Thank you for defeating us”. The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one and a lot of people have grievances with it but the problem is, this is about Israel and they are not any better and didn’t stand at a higher moral ground with their illegal occupation and actions that many consider genocidal.
- bigyabai 1y ago
  > The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one Relative to their last, America-backed regime? I don't think you're looking at this from an Iranian perspective at all.
  - mrtksn 1y ago
    You can tell its a shitty one when a resource rich nation don’t prosper.
    - catlifeonmars 1y ago
      The number of resource rich nations that do prosper are few and far between. It’s more the exception than the rule.
  - SauciestGNU 1y ago
    I would be very interested in hearing an Iranian perspective on how daily life changed for people when the Islamic Republic deposed Pahlavi.
  - simonh 1y ago
    The regime is spectacularly unpopular with the majority of Iranians.
    - SllX 1y ago
      I get this a lot from a guy I do trust, and his old man is an Iranian immigrant, but I also recognize my sources are very biased against the regime. Is there any good reporting out there or sentiment analysis that can show this? Or is it all word of mouth on the Internet? It's okay if there is nothing, but I'd feel a lot better if there was something substantial to back this up too.
      - birn559 1y ago
        Look up the demonstrations in Iran within the last ten years and/or since 2022.
        cholantesh 1y ago
        How many of them are in favour of having their cities leveled by a rogue state?
- yongjik 1y ago
  > some proper bombings and a war that killed 400,000 Americans. You want to repeat that history?
  - theonething 1y ago
    Here's some history I don't want to repeat: 1939, Nazi Germany starts fucking around and nobody does anything about it and then we have WWII on our hands. You've totally missed the point. It's precisely because we didn't "properly" bomb Germany to stop that first invasion of Poland, that WWII happened and we lost 400,000 Americans, 6 million Jews etc.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - stickfigure 1y ago
      The only thing this parent got wrong is the dates. Historians seem to generally think that Hitler's regime would have collapsed if the West had stood up to: * The militarization of the Rhineland in 1936 * The Anschluss with Austria in March 1938 * The annexation of the Sudetenland (and the rest of Czechoslovakia) in October 1938 The German army was weak in the 1930s and his generals very hesitant. Hitler's "reckless" successes gave him credibility and power. Apparently Hitler was genuinely surprised when the west declared war after the invasion of Poland. He expected the cowardly West to roll over again. I recommend Childers' "World War II: A Military and Social History" if you're into this kind of thing.
      - herewulf 1y ago
        Historians seem to generally think that Hitler's regime never would have existed if the West had not bent Germany over a barrel in 1918 and immediately after. I mean, if we're going to ruminate over alternate timelines why fast forward to the 1930s..?
        stickfigure 1y ago
- 7952 1y ago
  I think the post war political movement in America that produced the Martial Plan was exceptional. The situation now in terms of institutions, leadership and doctrine is nothing like that. It is difficult to believe that America of today could help a country in that way. Accountability is too fractured. Profiteering has become a way of life. And fundamentalism is too strong.
jvm___ 1y ago
What are the chances that the peaceful, think it through, be reasonable crowd is ready to organize the next regime. Or maybe the hotheads with guns are ready to shoot first aim later. Perhaps forcing regime changes on other countries shouldn't be a quick decision.
devcpp 1y ago
Saying "Khomeini" on current day Iran casts a large doubt on how much you know on the topic.
- levanten 1y ago
  He is asking a valid question. Experts on the issue also warn that there is no guarantee that what replaces the current regime would be any more amenable.
  - senderista 1y ago
    See also: Russia
  - apparent 1y ago
    Yes, but that name refers to a leader from decades ago. There is a similar-named leader today, but people who conflate the two tend not to be well-informed on the topic.
- WaxProlix 1y ago
  Yeah sorry for the typo - I obviously didn't mean the dude from the 80s. I'm not a scholar but have been paying attention for at least the last few years, so mea culpa.

mrtksn 1y ago

I guess it’s all about how it’s handled afterwards. Germany and Japan have become huge US allies after some proper bombings. Just recently Trump tried to troll the Germany’s leader for it and only got a “Thank you for defeating us”. The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one and a lot of people have grievances with it but the problem is, this is about Israel and they are not any better and didn’t stand at a higher moral ground with their illegal occupation and actions that many consider genocidal.

bigyabai 1y ago
> The truth is that Iran’s regime is indeed a very shitty one Relative to their last, America-backed regime? I don't think you're looking at this from an Iranian perspective at all.
- mrtksn 1y ago
  You can tell its a shitty one when a resource rich nation don’t prosper.
  - catlifeonmars 1y ago
    The number of resource rich nations that do prosper are few and far between. It’s more the exception than the rule.
- SauciestGNU 1y ago
  I would be very interested in hearing an Iranian perspective on how daily life changed for people when the Islamic Republic deposed Pahlavi.
- simonh 1y ago
  The regime is spectacularly unpopular with the majority of Iranians.
  - SllX 1y ago
    I get this a lot from a guy I do trust, and his old man is an Iranian immigrant, but I also recognize my sources are very biased against the regime. Is there any good reporting out there or sentiment analysis that can show this? Or is it all word of mouth on the Internet? It's okay if there is nothing, but I'd feel a lot better if there was something substantial to back this up too.
    - birn559 1y ago
      Look up the demonstrations in Iran within the last ten years and/or since 2022.
      - cholantesh 1y ago
        How many of them are in favour of having their cities leveled by a rogue state?
yongjik 1y ago
> some proper bombings and a war that killed 400,000 Americans. You want to repeat that history?
- theonething 1y ago
  Here's some history I don't want to repeat: 1939, Nazi Germany starts fucking around and nobody does anything about it and then we have WWII on our hands. You've totally missed the point. It's precisely because we didn't "properly" bomb Germany to stop that first invasion of Poland, that WWII happened and we lost 400,000 Americans, 6 million Jews etc.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - stickfigure 1y ago
    The only thing this parent got wrong is the dates. Historians seem to generally think that Hitler's regime would have collapsed if the West had stood up to: * The militarization of the Rhineland in 1936 * The Anschluss with Austria in March 1938 * The annexation of the Sudetenland (and the rest of Czechoslovakia) in October 1938 The German army was weak in the 1930s and his generals very hesitant. Hitler's "reckless" successes gave him credibility and power. Apparently Hitler was genuinely surprised when the west declared war after the invasion of Poland. He expected the cowardly West to roll over again. I recommend Childers' "World War II: A Military and Social History" if you're into this kind of thing.
    - herewulf 1y ago
      Historians seem to generally think that Hitler's regime never would have existed if the West had not bent Germany over a barrel in 1918 and immediately after. I mean, if we're going to ruminate over alternate timelines why fast forward to the 1930s..?
      - stickfigure 1y ago
7952 1y ago
I think the post war political movement in America that produced the Martial Plan was exceptional. The situation now in terms of institutions, leadership and doctrine is nothing like that. It is difficult to believe that America of today could help a country in that way. Accountability is too fractured. Profiteering has become a way of life. And fundamentalism is too strong.

jvm___ 1y ago

What are the chances that the peaceful, think it through, be reasonable crowd is ready to organize the next regime. Or maybe the hotheads with guns are ready to shoot first aim later. Perhaps forcing regime changes on other countries shouldn't be a quick decision.

devcpp 1y ago

Saying "Khomeini" on current day Iran casts a large doubt on how much you know on the topic.

levanten 1y ago
He is asking a valid question. Experts on the issue also warn that there is no guarantee that what replaces the current regime would be any more amenable.
- senderista 1y ago
  See also: Russia
- apparent 1y ago
  Yes, but that name refers to a leader from decades ago. There is a similar-named leader today, but people who conflate the two tend not to be well-informed on the topic.
WaxProlix 1y ago
Yeah sorry for the typo - I obviously didn't mean the dude from the 80s. I'm not a scholar but have been paying attention for at least the last few years, so mea culpa.