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for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercep

by tguvot 1y ago

for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercepted or falling in empty fields). On the other side Israel attempt on taking our Iranian AD was success. It led Iran to make 2 decisions - Accelerate production of IRBM in order to have 10000 in stock and to build 1000 launchers in order to execute massive launches that will not possible to defend against - Apparently the did decide to mate their IRBM with nukes as recently there was meeting between whoever managed iranian missiles problem and heads of nuclear project (there is economist article about it). This comes against backdrop of hamas and hezbollah been wiped. especially hezbollah which was supposed to be strike force against israel with estimated 100k-200k missiles and rockets. PS. to those who write that jordan/usa intercepted most/a lot. they (together with saudi arabia, uk and france intercepted drones and cruise missiles. out of all IRBM only 6 were intercepted with SM3 missiles from USA ship)

Stevvo 1y ago
Hamas has not "been wiped"; they have more members than before October 7th.
- mieses 1y ago
  I hope their new members are midwit western university students not capable of speaking fluent Arabic while extinguishing your consciousness.
- petesergeant 1y ago
  > Hamas [has] more members than before October 7th I'm skeptical of this; any source?
- amluto 1y ago
  Do they have much in the way of military capability right now? They could have a full two million committed members, and that might be a serious long term strategic issue for Israel, but the actual immediate threat might be nominal.
  - tguvot 1y ago
    some yes. left over weapon. they can booby trap buildings, attach explosives to apc/tanks. maybe some rpg. Occasional rocket info Israel. A bunch of undiscovered tunnels but now after their command was wiped out and they can't sell aid, they have serious financial problems (they need to pay their fighters. it's very transactional). but in case idf will leave gaza, they will have enough power to dominate the strip.
CapricornNoble 1y ago
> for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercepted or falling in empty fields). For clarification, those interception efforts last year required massive assistance from the US and Jordan, and required a hugely disproportionate and unsustainable investment of munitions to pull off. What we've seen in the last week is that Israeli air defenses are much more brittle than they want anyone to believe. EDIT: For the down-voters, here's Bloomberg citing Israeli media that defending against Operation True Promise cost ~$1 billion USD: https://archive.is/WHDvG https://archive.is/WHDvG and here is NPR about Jordan's assistance: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/15/1244900560/what-is-known-about-jordans-role-in-downing-iranian-drones https://www.npr.org/2024/04/15/1244900560/what-is-known-abou... and here is the NYT questioning Israel's missile stockpiles: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-interceptors-iran-missiles-war-length.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-i...

by tguvot 1y ago

Stevvo 1y ago

Hamas has not "been wiped"; they have more members than before October 7th.

mieses 1y ago
I hope their new members are midwit western university students not capable of speaking fluent Arabic while extinguishing your consciousness.
petesergeant 1y ago
> Hamas [has] more members than before October 7th I'm skeptical of this; any source?
amluto 1y ago
Do they have much in the way of military capability right now? They could have a full two million committed members, and that might be a serious long term strategic issue for Israel, but the actual immediate threat might be nominal.
- tguvot 1y ago
  some yes. left over weapon. they can booby trap buildings, attach explosives to apc/tanks. maybe some rpg. Occasional rocket info Israel. A bunch of undiscovered tunnels but now after their command was wiped out and they can't sell aid, they have serious financial problems (they need to pay their fighters. it's very transactional). but in case idf will leave gaza, they will have enough power to dominate the strip.

CapricornNoble 1y ago

> for people who don't follow news. last year Iran strikes on Israel with IRBM (two times, 150 missiles each time) weren't particularly effective (either intercepted or falling in empty fields). For clarification, those interception efforts last year required massive assistance from the US and Jordan, and required a hugely disproportionate and unsustainable investment of munitions to pull off. What we've seen in the last week is that Israeli air defenses are much more brittle than they want anyone to believe. EDIT: For the down-voters, here's Bloomberg citing Israeli media that defending against Operation True Promise cost ~$1 billion USD: https://archive.is/WHDvG https://archive.is/WHDvG and here is NPR about Jordan's assistance: https://www.npr.org/2024/04/15/1244900560/what-is-known-about-jordans-role-in-downing-iranian-drones https://www.npr.org/2024/04/15/1244900560/what-is-known-abou... and here is the NYT questioning Israel's missile stockpiles: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-interceptors-iran-missiles-war-length.html https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/world/middleeast/israel-i...