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If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East, especially with Saudis, who will want their own nukes. Iran getting nukes is the spark that

If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East, especially with Saudis, who will want their own nukes. Iran getting nukes is the spark that will start a lot of chain reactions. And islamic populations are radicalized enough that the possibility of a nuke on Israel increases dramatically.

danenania 1y ago
I think this attack makes it more likely they’ll get nukes, not less. They moved all their enriched uranium already, and now they know that there’s no longer any point in diplomacy. The next facilities they build will be a few times deeper, and I have no doubt we’ll soon be hearing that ground troops are the only way to stop them.
- mupuff1234 1y ago
  Those can be bombed right at the beginning. Israel will probably try to establish a similar status que as in Lebanon right now - "if you make a move we immediately take it out". And the development of a nuclear sites leaves a significant intelligence trail, not sure it can be hidden. (Of course they can always be gifted a bomb, but that's a very different story)
  - danenania 1y ago
    Yeah I’m sure it will be a huge success with no unforeseen consequences whatsoever. Since that’s how these things have been going over the last thirty years.
    - mupuff1234 1y ago
      Can't that be said about every path of action in this scenario?
- dlubarov 1y ago
  They had already crossed the line into nuclear tech that's specifically for weapons, i.e. with a 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. Unless we accept explanations like "scientific curiosity", they were already somewhere in the process of building nuclear weapons, even if success wasn't immanent. I don't know how long these operations will set them back, but if the Iranian regime won't willingly refrain from nuclear weapons work, isn't a delay better than nothing?
  - danenania 1y ago
    They “could have” had nuclear weapons for a long time if they’d wanted to, yes, but they didn’t get them. They signed the NPT, allowed inspections, and their ruler issued a fatwa against developing nuclear weapons. Why’d they do all that if their goal all along was to get a nuclear weapon? They could have just done it. These attacks make it clear that they would have been better off if they had gotten them, so it seems reasonable to assume this will be their new policy. What other strategic choice have they been left with?
    - dlubarov 1y ago
      Just to clarify, is your position that Iran was never working toward nuclear weapons, or just not until recently? I think enriching uranium to 60% is pretty clear evidence of their intent, even though it's just one component of an eventual weapon. Being an NPT signatory could be evidence of Iran not working toward nuclear weapons, if they were compliant. But they have violated their NPT obligations on some occasions, with major violations recently.
      - danenania 1y ago
        I think they wanted to be seen as credibly close as a deterrent and bargaining chip in negotiations, but they had no intention of going all the way unless attacked. Now they likely do intend to get them asap if they’re able to.
      - guelo 1y ago
        Why would it be up to a rogue non-NPT country, Israel, to enforce the NPT?
nashashmi 1y ago
Islamic populations?
- kumarvvr 1y ago
  Most of Islamic republics are fiefdoms, kingdoms and dictatorships. Most of the populations are radicalized, and have very limited freedom of speech and right to protest.
  - Ar-Curunir 1y ago
    Have you lived in any of these Islamic countries?
    - booleandilemma 1y ago
      You just have to read a wikipedia article on them. No need to live there.
    - kumarvvr 1y ago
      Is that a pre-condition to know about countries, leaderships and general public? I have not lived in the US, and I know a lot about the US national character.
      - Ar-Curunir 1y ago
        Yes, I would say that making sweeping statements about a populace does require actual first-hand experience with said populace.
      - nashashmi 1y ago
        > I have not lived in the US, and I know a lot about the US national character That is not a good comparison. The US is well reported enough in news and media and movie to have a good awareness of the culture within. You also understand their language. However, the Arab world is not reported well enough apart from biased sources that seek to defame and discredit them. And neither would you understand their language. So no your awareness of their culture and country and leadership is so far fallen yet you think it is sufficient that it becomes dangerous. There is no such thing as Islamic population unless you are an Islamophobe who have sought to “other” this part of the world
selcuka 1y ago
> If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East A fair concern, but it is interesting that although "estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads" [1], we are not concerned about those warheads as much as we do about the ones Iran might have. Should US bomb Israeli nuclear plants? No. Should they have bombed the Iranian ones? Why? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel
- yonisto 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - vFunct 1y ago
    Israel has always threatened its neighbors. Remember, it was born as a group of European Jews that attacked Palestine to conquer their land, with arms provided to them by Europe. It will always exist under a state of war. We have to let Israel die off and change our alliances. An alliance with Iran would be much more beneficial to America than an alliance with Israel.
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
  - all_factz 1y ago
    Have you been to Israel? I have cousins there. When I was 14 and visited, my 19 year old cousin told me we need to kill all the Arabs because “if we exile them, they will just come back.” Do you really think (a large segment of) Israelis are less crazy than (a large segment of) Iranians?
    - yonisto 1y ago
      No. People are crazy everywhere. That is not the same as the actual leaders of the country. The one that are calling the shots making the same claims for 46 years. Now, I don't know if you noticed, your cousins while they are not kind to Arabs (which if you had Arab cousins you would have noticed that they are not very kind to Jews), have nothing whatsoever with Iran, no more than they have anything with Napal. 1500km away!
jenny91 1y ago
Almost a kind of domino theory, if you will?
vFunct 1y ago
And that's something we will have to accept, that Islamic populations will always have nukes. How do you plan to handle a world with Islamic populations having nukes? Because that's something you will have to plan for. You have no choice. They will not let you not let them have nukes. They will make sure they will have nukes. That's just given.

danenania 1y ago

I think this attack makes it more likely they’ll get nukes, not less. They moved all their enriched uranium already, and now they know that there’s no longer any point in diplomacy. The next facilities they build will be a few times deeper, and I have no doubt we’ll soon be hearing that ground troops are the only way to stop them.

mupuff1234 1y ago
Those can be bombed right at the beginning. Israel will probably try to establish a similar status que as in Lebanon right now - "if you make a move we immediately take it out". And the development of a nuclear sites leaves a significant intelligence trail, not sure it can be hidden. (Of course they can always be gifted a bomb, but that's a very different story)
- danenania 1y ago
  Yeah I’m sure it will be a huge success with no unforeseen consequences whatsoever. Since that’s how these things have been going over the last thirty years.
  - mupuff1234 1y ago
    Can't that be said about every path of action in this scenario?
dlubarov 1y ago
They had already crossed the line into nuclear tech that's specifically for weapons, i.e. with a 400kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. Unless we accept explanations like "scientific curiosity", they were already somewhere in the process of building nuclear weapons, even if success wasn't immanent. I don't know how long these operations will set them back, but if the Iranian regime won't willingly refrain from nuclear weapons work, isn't a delay better than nothing?
- danenania 1y ago
  They “could have” had nuclear weapons for a long time if they’d wanted to, yes, but they didn’t get them. They signed the NPT, allowed inspections, and their ruler issued a fatwa against developing nuclear weapons. Why’d they do all that if their goal all along was to get a nuclear weapon? They could have just done it. These attacks make it clear that they would have been better off if they had gotten them, so it seems reasonable to assume this will be their new policy. What other strategic choice have they been left with?
  - dlubarov 1y ago
    Just to clarify, is your position that Iran was never working toward nuclear weapons, or just not until recently? I think enriching uranium to 60% is pretty clear evidence of their intent, even though it's just one component of an eventual weapon. Being an NPT signatory could be evidence of Iran not working toward nuclear weapons, if they were compliant. But they have violated their NPT obligations on some occasions, with major violations recently.
    - danenania 1y ago
      I think they wanted to be seen as credibly close as a deterrent and bargaining chip in negotiations, but they had no intention of going all the way unless attacked. Now they likely do intend to get them asap if they’re able to.
    - guelo 1y ago
      Why would it be up to a rogue non-NPT country, Israel, to enforce the NPT?

nashashmi 1y ago

Islamic populations?

kumarvvr 1y ago
Most of Islamic republics are fiefdoms, kingdoms and dictatorships. Most of the populations are radicalized, and have very limited freedom of speech and right to protest.
- Ar-Curunir 1y ago
  Have you lived in any of these Islamic countries?
  - booleandilemma 1y ago
    You just have to read a wikipedia article on them. No need to live there.
  - kumarvvr 1y ago
    Is that a pre-condition to know about countries, leaderships and general public? I have not lived in the US, and I know a lot about the US national character.
    - Ar-Curunir 1y ago
      Yes, I would say that making sweeping statements about a populace does require actual first-hand experience with said populace.
    - nashashmi 1y ago
      > I have not lived in the US, and I know a lot about the US national character That is not a good comparison. The US is well reported enough in news and media and movie to have a good awareness of the culture within. You also understand their language. However, the Arab world is not reported well enough apart from biased sources that seek to defame and discredit them. And neither would you understand their language. So no your awareness of their culture and country and leadership is so far fallen yet you think it is sufficient that it becomes dangerous. There is no such thing as Islamic population unless you are an Islamophobe who have sought to “other” this part of the world

selcuka 1y ago

> If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East A fair concern, but it is interesting that although "estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads" [1], we are not concerned about those warheads as much as we do about the ones Iran might have. Should US bomb Israeli nuclear plants? No. Should they have bombed the Iranian ones? Why? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel

yonisto 1y ago
[flagged]
- vFunct 1y ago
  Israel has always threatened its neighbors. Remember, it was born as a group of European Jews that attacked Palestine to conquer their land, with arms provided to them by Europe. It will always exist under a state of war. We have to let Israel die off and change our alliances. An alliance with Iran would be much more beneficial to America than an alliance with Israel.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- all_factz 1y ago
  Have you been to Israel? I have cousins there. When I was 14 and visited, my 19 year old cousin told me we need to kill all the Arabs because “if we exile them, they will just come back.” Do you really think (a large segment of) Israelis are less crazy than (a large segment of) Iranians?
  - yonisto 1y ago
    No. People are crazy everywhere. That is not the same as the actual leaders of the country. The one that are calling the shots making the same claims for 46 years. Now, I don't know if you noticed, your cousins while they are not kind to Arabs (which if you had Arab cousins you would have noticed that they are not very kind to Jews), have nothing whatsoever with Iran, no more than they have anything with Napal. 1500km away!

jenny91 1y ago

Almost a kind of domino theory, if you will?

vFunct 1y ago

And that's something we will have to accept, that Islamic populations will always have nukes. How do you plan to handle a world with Islamic populations having nukes? Because that's something you will have to plan for. You have no choice. They will not let you not let them have nukes. They will make sure they will have nukes. That's just given.