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Prediction: Iran will fold somewhat quickly and history will remember this as good move.
by fldskfjdslkfj 1y ago
Prediction: Iran will fold somewhat quickly and history will remember this as good move.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- raincole 1y agoThey'll do some symbolic attacks against the US bases in ME. But yeah, I do think history will remember this as one of the few good things Trump does.
- hkpack 1y agoAlternative prediction: Destabilized Iran will make another migration crisis in Europe, will divide it politically because of the rise of anti immigrant far right, and finally set the scene for a full scale european war with russia, followed by other counties on both sides. US will be forced to join and millions of its citizen will die in WW3.
- ericmay 1y agoWhy would there be more migrants to Europe from Iran?
- hkpack 1y agoThe same reason there were millions of refugees from Syria or Libya or Ukraine or because of any other instability in the region. There is just no much other places for people to run when shit hits fan.
- ericmay 1y agoMaybe, but the EU has different policies and a different understanding of immigration now compared to say 2010-2023, right? Also those countries you mentioned are a bit closer to Europe compared to Iran. But I’m also not sure that the situations are comparable. In the case of Ukraine which is probably most similar to Iran from an economic standpoint, had many refugees who were temporarily fleeing Russian aggression but planned to return to Ukraine. Iran, especially if/when it’s out from under sanctions has a more robust economy and geopolitical forces going for it, versus Libya or Syria, in my view.
- hkpack 1y agoIt won’t matter what the policies are as the majority of refugees will try to get to the EU illegally. Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed.
- ericmay 1y agoIt will matter because they can have policies like “stricter border control” to stop legal or illegal immigration. It’s like Pakistan and how they closed their border to refugees from Iran. > Economy will matter only if there will be no fallout in Iran which is not guaranteed. Sure it depends on what all happens, but my point was it is different than Syria or Libya in many aspects.
- Ray20 1y ago>It won’t matter what the policies are as the majority of refugees will try to get to the EU illegally. But policies directly influence people's motivation to become illegal migrants in a particular country.
- abletonlive 1y ago[flagged]
- hkpack 1y agoYeah, thanks for the war in Iraq and for the raise of ISIS, and for the war in Syria and now destabilizing Iran. “self inflicted”
- nemothekid 1y ago>but there's actually nothing separating china Yeah man, nothing except 2000+ miles of the largest mountain ranges in the fucking world. Are you serious man?
- sealeck 1y agoI know that this kind of comment makes sense from the American perspective (based on past US actions in South America) but the EU is not actually responsible for massively destabilising the Middle East.
- riLTSfxA9FSX 1y ago[flagged]
- PeterHolzwarth 1y agoAlternate prediction: Iran - a country detested in much of the middle east - getting nuclear weapons will quickly lead to proliferation as other middle east countries feel compelled to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs to counter the threat of Iran. This is why the west has been working to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions for decades.
- discordance 1y agoNoam Chomsky, "Is Iran a threat?" - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdxxVxtHK2M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdxxVxtHK2M (... no)
- PeterHolzwarth 1y agoA nuclear armed Iran is very definitely a threat. Much of the middle east considers Iran to be an enemy, and if Iran gets nukes, the rest of the middle east will feel compelled to follow. The west has been working to counter Iran's ongoing nuclear weapons program for decades.
- dudefeliciano 1y agoSince 1945 the United States of America never attacks countries that are actual threats, we should have learned this by now.
- fldskfjdslkfj 1y ago> "Nobody in their right mind wants iran to have nuclear weapons" Does not sound like Chomsky is saying "no, iran isn't a threat" to me.
- infamouscow 1y ago[flagged]
- arresin 1y agoYou might want to wipe off the foam that’s starting around your own mouth.
- infamouscow 1y ago[flagged]
- lunar-whitey 1y ago“De-Nazification” required every Allied power to commit to years of occupation and decades more of economic support to prevent backsliding. No such agreement is possible today. Contemporary experience shows the probable outcome of regime change policy is a failed state that remains a hazard to its neighbors.
- infamouscow 1y agoDe-Nazification required the Allies mass-murdering about a million Germans after the war was over. There's a reason why there's a fudge factor of 1M in the POW camps in the years after the war. During the Civil War, Abolitionists mass-murdered slave owners by way of dueling them. The story of Cassius Marcellus Clay is littered with stories of brutally killing slave owners and we champion Abolitionists as righteous.
- lunar-whitey 1y agoDe-Nazification as policy essentially evaporated in the west in the earliest years of the Adenaur government. Killing and displacement of Germans in the east certainly occurred, but the example of the west shows this was not essential. Killing men in personal duels is not comparable or relevant.
- gsibble 1y agoExactly what I think will happen. I think it's already inevitable. The IDF has total air superiority. The regime has very little capabilities left at all.
- siltcakes 1y agoIran has been bombing Israeli targets at will, including Tel Aviv. Israel doesn't even have control over their own airspace.
- coffeefirst 1y agoOkay. But then what? In Lebanon the state is attempting to reassert itself. In Syria the rebels took control. But with no foreign boots on the ground, and no organized opposition ready to step in, what exactly is supposed to happen after the regime folds?
- Avshalom 1y ago"Point / Counterpoint: This War Will Destabilize the Entire Mideast and Set Off a Shockwave of Anti-Americanism VS. No It Won’t“
- riku_iki 1y agoIran and allies already did what they could during Gaza escalation. Their projection power is rather limited.
- siltcakes 1y ago[flagged]
- carabiner 1y agoRussia will bump up arms shipments to Iran. We'll have no choice but to strike interior of Russia. Russia will not hit mainland US, but will attack US bases across Western Europe. This will be WW3.
- int_19h 1y agoRussia needs everything it can manufacture for itself to use in Ukraine, and they have already gotten everything useful there was to get from Iran, so the latter is on their own.
- biglyburrito 1y agoThis absolutely will not happen. Iran has been shipping missiles & drones TO Russia, because Russia can't domestically produce enough of either to sustain their war against Ukraine.
- lostlogin 1y ago> We'll have no choice but to strike interior of Russia. You really believe Trump would take meaningful action against Russia? He can even make a forceful statement, let alone act.
- 827a 1y agoIts actually incredible how this exact thing could have been done by any other President and half the people losing their minds about WW3 in these comments wouldn't have even logged on to comment.