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I feel like Trump and the United States are in a damned-if-you-do and damned-if-you-don’t situation. If the US doesn’t protect its ally Israel, then that’s a hu

by _1tem 1y ago

I feel like Trump and the United States are in a damned-if-you-do and damned-if-you-don’t situation. If the US doesn’t protect its ally Israel, then that’s a huge loss in credibility to American hard power and possibly the beginning of the end of the State of Israel, because Iran’s ballistic missile program is dangerously effective. If the US goes ahead with all-out war in Iran, this risks becoming another trillion dollar boondoggle like Afghanistan, except worse because Trump’s base is about less foreign involvement, low gas prices, and ending wars. A war with Iran could also go very badly because it’s not clear how to stop a ballistic missile program in a country the size of Iran (years of bombing even failed to stop the Houthis from lobbing missiles). And if war creates more instability in the Middle East - Israel will have much bigger problems if the Saudi Arabian monarchy for example collapses. No good options, and the Middle East is being completely reshaped regardless. Meanwhile China quietly supports Iran: https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3314468/israeli-strikes-one-more-challenge-new-china-iran-rail-corridor https://www.scmp.com/opinion/china-opinion/article/3314468/i...

squishington 1y ago
The scariest aspect to me is trumps unpredictability. He acts based on his psychological needs in the moment, I.e. need for narcissistic supply. He isn't ideological in the way that netanyahu and Putin are, so he is going to react based on how others are reacting to him. He clearly has learning difficulties and isn't able to grasp history and politics. He also isn't someone who asks for advice. It challenges his need for a sense of total competence.
- mikeweiss 1y ago
  I mean he definitely asks for other people to help him come to decisions.... You just don't hear about it unless it doesn't work out and he's looking for a scapegoat.
  - bryanlarsen 1y ago
    You hear about it all the time. It happens most days. Trump has a meeting with person X, then announces something favorable to person X. The next day he has a meeting with person Y, then announces something favorable to person Y, even if it contradicts the previous day's announcement.
  - squishington 1y ago
    I feel like his public disagreement with tulsi gabbard over Iran's armament situation exemplifies the tension between his psychological needs and the stability of his government. These kind of conflicts shouldn't play out in the public sphere.
happytoexplain 1y ago
>Trump’s base is about less foreign involvement, low gas prices, and ending wars Is this broadly true? I'm not disagreeing, it's just that I do not keep up with politics, but most of the Republicans in my life want Trump to destroy Iran, which I thought seemed unsurprising, politically? Yes, they want less foreign involvement and less war, but with the gigantic exception of the case where they hate the target culture (again, I'm just talking about people in my life).
- icegreentea2 1y ago
  Polling from June 13-16 shows majority of Americans (Democrats, Independents and Republicans) oppose US intervention https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52380-donald-trump-approval-israel-iran-ice-immigration-protests-vaccines-robert-f-kennedy-jr-june-13-16-2025-economistyougov-poll https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52380-donald-trum... The reality is that Trump's current political coalition is composed of many parts, and has a variety of internal contradictions that Trump has been able hold together, most likely through his command of his true/core base. We might say that segment of the population is highly aggrieved, has high belief in Trump's personal ability to affect change (including negatively harming out groups), and loosely holds an isolationist stance (though perhaps this would better be casted as interventionist/internationalist skeptical). The rest of Trump's coalition includes parties like converted hawks/neocons, who are broadly interventionist. An actual uniting policy issue across groups is a heighten animosity towards China. Even the most isolationist groups carried significant grievance against China, and would support actions to either punish China, or actions to improve US' relative position to China.

by _1tem 1y ago

squishington 1y ago

The scariest aspect to me is trumps unpredictability. He acts based on his psychological needs in the moment, I.e. need for narcissistic supply. He isn't ideological in the way that netanyahu and Putin are, so he is going to react based on how others are reacting to him. He clearly has learning difficulties and isn't able to grasp history and politics. He also isn't someone who asks for advice. It challenges his need for a sense of total competence.

mikeweiss 1y ago
I mean he definitely asks for other people to help him come to decisions.... You just don't hear about it unless it doesn't work out and he's looking for a scapegoat.
- bryanlarsen 1y ago
  You hear about it all the time. It happens most days. Trump has a meeting with person X, then announces something favorable to person X. The next day he has a meeting with person Y, then announces something favorable to person Y, even if it contradicts the previous day's announcement.
- squishington 1y ago
  I feel like his public disagreement with tulsi gabbard over Iran's armament situation exemplifies the tension between his psychological needs and the stability of his government. These kind of conflicts shouldn't play out in the public sphere.

happytoexplain 1y ago

>Trump’s base is about less foreign involvement, low gas prices, and ending wars Is this broadly true? I'm not disagreeing, it's just that I do not keep up with politics, but most of the Republicans in my life want Trump to destroy Iran, which I thought seemed unsurprising, politically? Yes, they want less foreign involvement and less war, but with the gigantic exception of the case where they hate the target culture (again, I'm just talking about people in my life).

icegreentea2 1y ago
Polling from June 13-16 shows majority of Americans (Democrats, Independents and Republicans) oppose US intervention https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52380-donald-trump-approval-israel-iran-ice-immigration-protests-vaccines-robert-f-kennedy-jr-june-13-16-2025-economistyougov-poll https://today.yougov.com/politics/articles/52380-donald-trum... The reality is that Trump's current political coalition is composed of many parts, and has a variety of internal contradictions that Trump has been able hold together, most likely through his command of his true/core base. We might say that segment of the population is highly aggrieved, has high belief in Trump's personal ability to affect change (including negatively harming out groups), and loosely holds an isolationist stance (though perhaps this would better be casted as interventionist/internationalist skeptical). The rest of Trump's coalition includes parties like converted hawks/neocons, who are broadly interventionist. An actual uniting policy issue across groups is a heighten animosity towards China. Even the most isolationist groups carried significant grievance against China, and would support actions to either punish China, or actions to improve US' relative position to China.