> If you make many predictions at 70-80% confidence, as he does, you should expect 20-30% of them not to come true. Yes that's the point, these people hedge li

> If you make many predictions at 70-80% confidence, as he does, you should expect 20-30% of them not to come true. Yes that's the point, these people hedge like crazy to the point that they say nothing, they mean nothing, and effectively predict nothing.