Adding numbers to your reasoning, when there is no obvious source for these probabilities (we aren’t calculating sports odds or doing climate science), is not r

Adding numbers to your reasoning, when there is no obvious source for these probabilities (we aren’t calculating sports odds or doing climate science), is not really any different than writing a piece of fiction to make your point. It’s the same basic thing that objectivists did, and why I dismiss most “Bayesian reasoning” arguments out of hand.