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How confident should other people be that random people in conversation or commentors on the internet are at accurately predicting the future? I strongly believ
by megaman821 1y ago
How confident should other people be that random people in conversation or commentors on the internet are at accurately predicting the future? I strongly believe that nearly 100% are wrong in both major and minor ways.
Also, when you say you have a strong belief, does that mean you have emptied you retirement accounts and you are enjoying all you can in the moment until the end comes?
- mitthrowaway2 1y agoI'm not kypro, but what counts as "strong belief" depends a lot on the context. For example, I won't cross the street without 99.99% confidence that I will survive. I cross streets so many times that a lower threshold like 99% would look like insanely risky dart-into-traffic behaviour. If an asteroid is heading for earth, then even a 25% probability of apocalyptic collision is enough that I would call it very high, and spend almost all my focus attempting to prevent that outcome. But I wouldn't empty my retirement account for the sake of hedonism because there's still a 75% chance I make it through and need to plan my retirement.