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> I don't hear people dismiss these risks very often as "You've just been reading too many science fiction novels" these days, which would have been the default

> I don't hear people dismiss these risks very often as "You've just been reading too many science fiction novels" these days, which would have been the default response back in the 90s or 2000s. I've recently stumbled across the theory that "it's gonna go away, just keep your head down" is the crisis response that has been taught to the generation that lived through the cold war, so that's how they act. That bit was in regards to climate change, but I can easily see it apply to AI as well (even though I personally believe that the whole "AI eat world" arc is only so popular due to marketing efforts of the corresponding industry)

hiAndrewQuinn 1y ago
It's possible, but I think that's just a general human response when you feel like you're trapped between a rock and a hard place. I don't buy the marketing angle, because it doesn't actually make sense to me. Fear draws eyeballs, sure, but it just seems otherwise nakedly counterproductive, like a burger chain advertising itself on the brutality of its factory farms.
- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 1y ago
  > like a burger chain advertising itself on the brutality of its factory farms It’s rather more like the burger chain decrying the brutality as a reason for other burger chains to be heavily regulated (don’t worry about them; they’re the guys you can trust and/or they are practically already holding themselves to strict ethical standards) while talking about how delicious and juicy their meat patties are. I agree about the general sentiment that the technology is dangerous, especially from a “oops, our agent stopped all of the power plants” angle. Just... the messaging from the big AI services is both that and marketing hype. It seems to get people to disregard real dangers as “marketing” and I think that’s because the actual marketing puts an outsized emphasis on the dangers. (Don’t hook your agent up to your power plant controls, please and thank you. But I somehow doubt that OpenAI and Anthropic will not be there, ready and willing, despite the dangers they are oh so aware of.)
  - hiAndrewQuinn 1y ago
    That is how I normally hear the marketing theory described when people go into it in more detail. I'm glad you ran with my burger chain metaphor, because it illustrates why I think it doesn't work for an AI company to intentionally try and advertise themselves with this kind of strategy, let alone ~all the big players in an industry. Any ordinary member of the burger-eating public would be turned off by such an advertisement. Many would quickly notice the unsaid thing; those not sharp enough to would probably just see the descriptions of torture and be less likely on the margin to go eat there instead of just, like, safe happy McDonald's. Analogously we have to ask ourselves why there seems to be no Andreessen-esque major AI lab that just says loud and proud, "Ignore those lunatics. Everything's going to be fine. Buy from us." That seems like it would be an excellent counterpositioning strategy in the 2025 ecosystem. Moreover, if the marketing theory is to be believed, these kinds of psuedo-ads are not targeted at the lowest common denominator of society. Their target is people with sway over actual regulation. Such an audience is going to be much more discerning, for the same reason a machinist vets his CNC machine advertisements much more aggressively than, say, the TVs on display at Best Buy. The more skin you have in the game, the more sense it makes to stop and analyze. Some would argue the AI companies know all this, and are gambling on the chance that they are able to get regulation through and get enshrined as some state-mandated AI monopoly. A well-owner does well in a desert, after all. I grant this is a possibility. I do not think the likelihood of success here is very high. It was higher back when OpenAI was the only game in town, and I had more sympathy for this theory back in 2020-2021, but each serious new entrant cuts this chance down multiplicatively across the board, and by now I don't think anyone could seriously pitch that to their investors as their exit strategy and expect a round of applause for their brilliance.
- ummonk 1y ago
  It's also reasonable as a Pascal's wager type of thing. If you can't affect the outcome, just prepare for the eventuality that it will work out because if it doesn't you'll be dead anyway.
deleted 1y ago
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hiAndrewQuinn 1y ago

It's possible, but I think that's just a general human response when you feel like you're trapped between a rock and a hard place. I don't buy the marketing angle, because it doesn't actually make sense to me. Fear draws eyeballs, sure, but it just seems otherwise nakedly counterproductive, like a burger chain advertising itself on the brutality of its factory farms.

lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 1y ago
> like a burger chain advertising itself on the brutality of its factory farms It’s rather more like the burger chain decrying the brutality as a reason for other burger chains to be heavily regulated (don’t worry about them; they’re the guys you can trust and/or they are practically already holding themselves to strict ethical standards) while talking about how delicious and juicy their meat patties are. I agree about the general sentiment that the technology is dangerous, especially from a “oops, our agent stopped all of the power plants” angle. Just... the messaging from the big AI services is both that and marketing hype. It seems to get people to disregard real dangers as “marketing” and I think that’s because the actual marketing puts an outsized emphasis on the dangers. (Don’t hook your agent up to your power plant controls, please and thank you. But I somehow doubt that OpenAI and Anthropic will not be there, ready and willing, despite the dangers they are oh so aware of.)
- hiAndrewQuinn 1y ago
  That is how I normally hear the marketing theory described when people go into it in more detail. I'm glad you ran with my burger chain metaphor, because it illustrates why I think it doesn't work for an AI company to intentionally try and advertise themselves with this kind of strategy, let alone ~all the big players in an industry. Any ordinary member of the burger-eating public would be turned off by such an advertisement. Many would quickly notice the unsaid thing; those not sharp enough to would probably just see the descriptions of torture and be less likely on the margin to go eat there instead of just, like, safe happy McDonald's. Analogously we have to ask ourselves why there seems to be no Andreessen-esque major AI lab that just says loud and proud, "Ignore those lunatics. Everything's going to be fine. Buy from us." That seems like it would be an excellent counterpositioning strategy in the 2025 ecosystem. Moreover, if the marketing theory is to be believed, these kinds of psuedo-ads are not targeted at the lowest common denominator of society. Their target is people with sway over actual regulation. Such an audience is going to be much more discerning, for the same reason a machinist vets his CNC machine advertisements much more aggressively than, say, the TVs on display at Best Buy. The more skin you have in the game, the more sense it makes to stop and analyze. Some would argue the AI companies know all this, and are gambling on the chance that they are able to get regulation through and get enshrined as some state-mandated AI monopoly. A well-owner does well in a desert, after all. I grant this is a possibility. I do not think the likelihood of success here is very high. It was higher back when OpenAI was the only game in town, and I had more sympathy for this theory back in 2020-2021, but each serious new entrant cuts this chance down multiplicatively across the board, and by now I don't think anyone could seriously pitch that to their investors as their exit strategy and expect a round of applause for their brilliance.
ummonk 1y ago
It's also reasonable as a Pascal's wager type of thing. If you can't affect the outcome, just prepare for the eventuality that it will work out because if it doesn't you'll be dead anyway.

deleted 1y ago

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