This is Geoffrey Hinton, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton, issuing his estimate of p(doom). He has wo

This is Geoffrey Hinton, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoffrey_Hinton, issuing his estimate of p(doom). He has worked in AI for a long time, and played an important role in foundational concepts such as the rise of the idea of backpropagation. So he knows enough about the subject that he should be taken seriously. See https://pauseai.info/pdoom https://pauseai.info/pdoom for a list of other knowledgeable people with their values of p(doom). Geoffrey Hinton would seem to be within the typical range, but on the optimistic side of our odds. I believe that this should be taken seriously. Not in a Chicken Little, the sky is falling, kind of way. But we should still take the possibility of real risk seriously.