3 ms·
If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds
by iab 1y ago
If it happens or it doesn’t then it must be 50/50 odds
- techpineapple 1y agoI'm not a statistician, but I'm pretty sure this is not how odds work. "Either I win the lottery tomorrow or I don't!"
- iab 1y agoSounds right to me, honestly people make stats so much harder than it needs to be
- Lockal 1y agoA smart person just said: my hypothesis that event is likely happen! It happens 90% of the time! Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: ok, 50%, either happens or not. Some time passed, the event did not happen. Same person said: all my previous predictions were correct, now let's apply Bayesian update: (1-0.9) * 0.5 / 0.5 = 0.1, so now posterior belief that the event is likely to happen drops from 50% to 10%.
- iab 1y agoNah this is too complicated I think