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> for the 20% prediction to be wrong. The was also not the bet. > I feel extremely confident taking the other end of this bet. I interpret that as full emplo
by tossandthrow 1y ago
> for the 20% prediction to be wrong.
The was also not the bet.
> I feel extremely confident taking the other end of this bet.
I interpret that as full employment, which we are practically at now.
It would be amazing if we can stick on to full employment without serious inflation over the next 5 years, and it sounds unreasonable in my ears.
- seadan83 1y ago>> I feel extremely confident taking the other end of this bet. > I interpret that as full employment, which we are practically at now. Yeah, no, the other end of the bet is that the 20% unemployment outcome will not happen (and it is implied that anything close to that would count, like say 15% or 17%, and of course anything over 20% would qualify too). 20% unemployment is massive depression level of unemployment; so the other end of the bet is that there won't be a massive depression. That is why I stated you present a false dichotomy that the bet is either "depression" or "full employment", the other end of the bet is "not depression"