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Your own data shows expenditures rose for 2 years after the signing of the treaty… and once the US pulled out they dropped precipitously. That’s ignoring the co

Your own data shows expenditures rose for 2 years after the signing of the treaty… and once the US pulled out they dropped precipitously. That’s ignoring the context of what was happening at the time namely, Iran directly supporting the genocidal Syrian regime. Those “experts” don’t at all support your claims that the 2015 deal was or could be successful. We’re not currently discussing the deal that might be made, as details are changing too rapidly for anything they said last week to be relevant anymore (e.g. many of the scientists who were pursuing a second jewish genocide are now dead). We’re discussing whether the 2015 deal was viable immediately after it was signed… based on your own data and idea (treaty = declining military spending) it appears it wasn’t.

runarberg 1y ago
Again. My hypothesis is about trends and probability, not absolutes. One datapoint is not enough to prove or disprove anything. I purposefully tried to find the most up to date opinions on the matter while still before Israels attacks. But here is what experts were saying back in March 2018 > Iran is Implementing Nuclear-related JCPOA Commitments, Director General Amano Tells IAEA Board https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nuclear-related-jcpoa-commitments-director-general-amano-tells-iaea-board https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nu... > Collapse of Iran nuclear deal would be ‘great loss,’ says UN atomic agency chief https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1004112 https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1004112
- amendegree 1y ago
  Lol k. So you opinion is that maybe if the rest of the world lets Iran build up a huge stockpile of weapons and enrich uranium 50% of the way to a nuke, they’ll not be as evil? I guess that’s an opinion someone could have… Regarding your sources, yes those are the naive experts I was talking about. The same ones who allowed Iran to build a secret facility right under their nose, the same one that finally admitted years too late that actually Iran is far out of compliance. They’re about as effective as UNIFIL.
- amendegree 1y ago
  Iran just withdrew from the NPT. So once again, your high minded ideas don’t have any basis in reality. This comes on the heels of the IAEA finally deciding to acknowledge the reality that Iran has not been in compliance for quite a while. Meanwhile you felt your personal opinion should be what decides the fate of half the world’s Jews.
  - runarberg 1y ago
    I wasn’t going to engage with you further since you’ve gone pretty far into personal attacks against me, but I do need to correct this. Iran has not (as of today) withdrawn from the non-proliferation treaty. All that has happened (as of now) is that the Iranian parliament is currently preparing a bill to withdraw, nothing more. Parliament will have to introduce and approve it, and the government will need to enforce it before Iran finally withdraws, and we don‘t know whether any of that will happen. Iran’s current government (including the foreign ministry) is on record being against nuclear weapons, and the Supreme leader seems pretty much against them, whether or not that is a lie remains to be seen. https://thearabweekly.com/iran-threatens-leave-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty https://thearabweekly.com/iran-threatens-leave-nuclear-non-p... Aside: The above link provides a calm summary of version events since USA withdrew from JCPOA, including the fact that Iran was in compliance until 2019; I advice you to read it and reevaluate your stance against treaties as an effective way to disarm states. What I am arguing here is that the fact that a nuclear armed nation is now attacking Iran will increase the probability that Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons, while negotiating a treaty will do the opposite. Israel is definitely showing Iran a good reason for pursue nuclear weapons, and the military hawks inside Iran’s leadership definitely have a much stronger case now. Hopefully they will still fail at convincing the supreme leader of taking further steps in acquiring them, and remaining a member of the non-proliferation treaty. Finally, a question. You seem to not believe that treaties are an effective way to disarm states. Why do you care whether or not Iran is a member of the non-proliferation treaty? According to your beliefs, it wouldn’t matter either way. Iran would be equally likely to get the bomb inside or outside the non-proliferation treaty.
    - amendegree 1y ago

runarberg 1y ago

Again. My hypothesis is about trends and probability, not absolutes. One datapoint is not enough to prove or disprove anything. I purposefully tried to find the most up to date opinions on the matter while still before Israels attacks. But here is what experts were saying back in March 2018 > Iran is Implementing Nuclear-related JCPOA Commitments, Director General Amano Tells IAEA Board https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nuclear-related-jcpoa-commitments-director-general-amano-tells-iaea-board https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/iran-is-implementing-nu... > Collapse of Iran nuclear deal would be ‘great loss,’ says UN atomic agency chief https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1004112 https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/03/1004112

amendegree 1y ago
Lol k. So you opinion is that maybe if the rest of the world lets Iran build up a huge stockpile of weapons and enrich uranium 50% of the way to a nuke, they’ll not be as evil? I guess that’s an opinion someone could have… Regarding your sources, yes those are the naive experts I was talking about. The same ones who allowed Iran to build a secret facility right under their nose, the same one that finally admitted years too late that actually Iran is far out of compliance. They’re about as effective as UNIFIL.
amendegree 1y ago
Iran just withdrew from the NPT. So once again, your high minded ideas don’t have any basis in reality. This comes on the heels of the IAEA finally deciding to acknowledge the reality that Iran has not been in compliance for quite a while. Meanwhile you felt your personal opinion should be what decides the fate of half the world’s Jews.
- runarberg 1y ago
  I wasn’t going to engage with you further since you’ve gone pretty far into personal attacks against me, but I do need to correct this. Iran has not (as of today) withdrawn from the non-proliferation treaty. All that has happened (as of now) is that the Iranian parliament is currently preparing a bill to withdraw, nothing more. Parliament will have to introduce and approve it, and the government will need to enforce it before Iran finally withdraws, and we don‘t know whether any of that will happen. Iran’s current government (including the foreign ministry) is on record being against nuclear weapons, and the Supreme leader seems pretty much against them, whether or not that is a lie remains to be seen. https://thearabweekly.com/iran-threatens-leave-nuclear-non-proliferation-treaty https://thearabweekly.com/iran-threatens-leave-nuclear-non-p... Aside: The above link provides a calm summary of version events since USA withdrew from JCPOA, including the fact that Iran was in compliance until 2019; I advice you to read it and reevaluate your stance against treaties as an effective way to disarm states. What I am arguing here is that the fact that a nuclear armed nation is now attacking Iran will increase the probability that Iran will eventually get nuclear weapons, while negotiating a treaty will do the opposite. Israel is definitely showing Iran a good reason for pursue nuclear weapons, and the military hawks inside Iran’s leadership definitely have a much stronger case now. Hopefully they will still fail at convincing the supreme leader of taking further steps in acquiring them, and remaining a member of the non-proliferation treaty. Finally, a question. You seem to not believe that treaties are an effective way to disarm states. Why do you care whether or not Iran is a member of the non-proliferation treaty? According to your beliefs, it wouldn’t matter either way. Iran would be equally likely to get the bomb inside or outside the non-proliferation treaty.
  - amendegree 1y ago