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> and a pretty short view of history Great lets see an example! > To claim that all of the benefit isn't going to naturally accrue to a thin layer of people a

> and a pretty short view of history Great lets see an example! > To claim that all of the benefit isn't going to naturally accrue to a thin layer of people at the top isn't a speculation at this point - it's a bold faced lie. Except that innovation has lead to more jobs, new industries, and more prosperity and fewer working hours. The stark example of this: you arent a farmer: https://modernsurvivalblog.com/systemic-risk/98-percent-of-americans-depend-on-2-percent-who-are-farmers/ https://modernsurvivalblog.com/systemic-risk/98-percent-of-a... Your shirts arent a weeks or a months income: https://www.bookandsword.com/2017/12/09/how-much-did-a-shirt-really-cost-in-the-middle-ages/ https://www.bookandsword.com/2017/12/09/how-much-did-a-shirt... Go back to the 1960's when automation was new. It was an expensive, long running failure for GM to put in those first robotic arms. Today there are people who have CNC shops in their garage. The cost of starting that business up is in the same price range as the pickup truck you might put in there. You no longer need accountants, payroll, and your not spending as much time doing these things yourself its all software. You dont need to have a retail location, or wholesale channels, build your website, app, leverage marketplaces and social media. The reality is that it is cheaper and easier than ever to be your own business... and lots of people are figuring this out and thriving. > Do we really think that most of the American economy is just going to downshift No I think my fellow Americans are going to scream and cry and hold on to dying ways of life -- See coal miners.

willis936 1y ago
I struggle to see how AI innovation falls into the "automate creation of material goods" camp and not the "stratification of wealth" camp.
- zer00eyz 1y ago
  This is a spurious argument at best: There isnt a line of unemployed draftsmen out there begging for change cause we invented Autocad: https://azon.com/2023/02/16/rare-historical-photos/ https://azon.com/2023/02/16/rare-historical-photos/ What happened to all the switchboard operators. How about the computers, the people who used to do math, at desks, with slide rules, before we replaced them with machines. These are all white colar jobs that we replaced with "automation". Amazon existed before, it was called Sears... it was a catalog so pictures, and printing, and mailing in checks, we replaced all of that with a website and CC processing.
  - willis936 1y ago
    I'm saying that AI isn't in the class of "inventions that automate useful work".
  - TeMPOraL 1y ago
    What happened to all the {"unemployed draftsmen", "switchboard operators", "the computers, the people who used to do math, at desks, with slide rules"}? They died in poverty. Or at least poorer than they'd been otherwise. Or are you really saying that someone who's half-way through their career in one thing can just switch to another occupation without any major life impact? Your senior-level salary in one industry doesn't automatically command a similar wage in another - your option is just competing for entry-level work with the younger generation.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    What happened to all the coal miners when the mines were closed: https://www.staffs.ac.uk/news/2025/04/legacy-of-inequality-and-deprivation-in-former-coal-mining-communities https://www.staffs.ac.uk/news/2025/04/legacy-of-inequality-a... When the factories closed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#Outcomes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#Outcomes The Luddites may have been wrong about society as a whole, but they were doing the things for which they are famous because of rampant unemployment at the time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite But think about it this way: software engineers have a job where they sit at a desk and think, then type a bit, and earn far more than most people. Given how apparently easy our jobs are, why don't more people "just" apply for our positions and drive down wages? Answer: skill mismatch, you can't (today) just pick it up in a weekend and start earning double.
TeMPOraL 1y ago
> Except that innovation has lead to more jobs, new industries, and more prosperity and fewer working hours. For other people's kids. This is the critical point so many are still missing: whatever benefits come from jobs being automated away, they do not come to people whose jobs were automated. Those people are fucked over for life. And to a large degree, so are their kids - the new careers are available for picking, but you're not going to be first in line with your peers, if you're struggling from the shock after your household suddenly dropped two levels down on the economic ladder.

willis936 1y ago

I struggle to see how AI innovation falls into the "automate creation of material goods" camp and not the "stratification of wealth" camp.

zer00eyz 1y ago
This is a spurious argument at best: There isnt a line of unemployed draftsmen out there begging for change cause we invented Autocad: https://azon.com/2023/02/16/rare-historical-photos/ https://azon.com/2023/02/16/rare-historical-photos/ What happened to all the switchboard operators. How about the computers, the people who used to do math, at desks, with slide rules, before we replaced them with machines. These are all white colar jobs that we replaced with "automation". Amazon existed before, it was called Sears... it was a catalog so pictures, and printing, and mailing in checks, we replaced all of that with a website and CC processing.
- willis936 1y ago
  I'm saying that AI isn't in the class of "inventions that automate useful work".
- TeMPOraL 1y ago
  What happened to all the {"unemployed draftsmen", "switchboard operators", "the computers, the people who used to do math, at desks, with slide rules"}? They died in poverty. Or at least poorer than they'd been otherwise. Or are you really saying that someone who's half-way through their career in one thing can just switch to another occupation without any major life impact? Your senior-level salary in one industry doesn't automatically command a similar wage in another - your option is just competing for entry-level work with the younger generation.
- ben_w 1y ago
  What happened to all the coal miners when the mines were closed: https://www.staffs.ac.uk/news/2025/04/legacy-of-inequality-and-deprivation-in-former-coal-mining-communities https://www.staffs.ac.uk/news/2025/04/legacy-of-inequality-a... When the factories closed: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#Outcomes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rust_Belt#Outcomes The Luddites may have been wrong about society as a whole, but they were doing the things for which they are famous because of rampant unemployment at the time: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luddite But think about it this way: software engineers have a job where they sit at a desk and think, then type a bit, and earn far more than most people. Given how apparently easy our jobs are, why don't more people "just" apply for our positions and drive down wages? Answer: skill mismatch, you can't (today) just pick it up in a weekend and start earning double.

TeMPOraL 1y ago

> Except that innovation has lead to more jobs, new industries, and more prosperity and fewer working hours. For other people's kids. This is the critical point so many are still missing: whatever benefits come from jobs being automated away, they do not come to people whose jobs were automated. Those people are fucked over for life. And to a large degree, so are their kids - the new careers are available for picking, but you're not going to be first in line with your peers, if you're struggling from the shock after your household suddenly dropped two levels down on the economic ladder.