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Pretty bad example, maybe something more like "Horses have been working for thousands of years -- horse in 1927".
by bearjaws 1y ago
Pretty bad example, maybe something more like "Horses have been working for thousands of years -- horse in 1927".
- falcor84 1y agoHow are the two examples different? In both cases the extrapolation was a reasonable bet that ended with a bust, due to a "black swan" event, no? Taleb himself would say that we should always try to include black swans in our predictions, but it's really difficult to do.