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He failed to consider that small actors won't have a monopoly on drones. The best counter is for the defending authority to have even more drones on constant p

He failed to consider that small actors won't have a monopoly on drones. The best counter is for the defending authority to have even more drones on constant patrol looking out for any drones that don't satisfy whatever the criteria is for a "good drone". This brings its own host of problems because the people have to become accustomed to constantly being surveilled by a swarm of government drones with the ability to assassinate anybody at any moment and nobody to hold criminally accountable, but my point is that this technology is available to the defenders too.

ffsm8 1y ago
I am not sure if you realize how hopelessly impossible that is. You're aware that the (to my knowledge, which is entirely based on documentaries) primary way drugs are shipped to the USA are drones nowadays? Some via air, some underwater etc There is just to much area and drones are tiny. It's infeasible to track them without spending insane amounts of money (and creating a total surveillance state as a by-product)
- snickerbockers 1y ago
  >I am not sure if you realize how hopelessly impossible that is. It's not impossible if it's predominantly automated. You have swarms of "police drones" on patrol actively scanning for other drones and when they see one that they don't like (some sort of signed certificate that authenticates the owner and their license) they shoot it down. It works as long as the "police drones" are plentiful and well dispersed to the point of maintaining dominance. >and creating a total surveillance state as a by-product that's what i meant when i said this brings its own host of problems. My point's not that our way of life will continue unabated my point is that this particular force multiplier goes both ways, and the defense will be a sort of "drone police corps". The biggest problems will be whatever happens outside of the "margin of error" (ie accidentally shooting down the wrong drones, civilians caught in crossfire, people hurt by falling debris) and the general end of any notion of privacy (not that America isn't already going in that direction anyways).
  - trod1234 1y ago
    This concept's conclusion is fully sketched out in Neal Stephenson's Diamond Age.
    - snickerbockers 1y ago
      I guess I'll have to check that one out. I read Snow Crash a decade ago and it's one of my favorite books ever written but I never read anything else he wrote because (from what i understand looking at reviews and plot synopses) it's not all bizarre cyberpunk "not-quite-parody but also not-entirely-serious" like Snow Crash.
      - LargoLasskhyfv 1y ago
        Do so! It's great.
    - r721 1y ago
      This subthread also reminded me of Sheckley's Watchbird story (written in 1953!)
trod1234 1y ago
Agreed. This is the most likely outcome of this, and it won't be regular drones it will be a race to toner wars from Neal Stephenson's "A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer." Floating clouds of molecular drones ever-present designed to destroy other unauthorized drones, and that technology will enable the long walk on a short pier for those that violate phyle rules. Cookie cutters.
rightbyte 1y ago
In theory I guess the anti-drone drones could be armed with non-lethal things like nets or balls or whatever.
HDThoreaun 1y ago
This does not seem realistic. The number of drones you’d need to pull this off has got to be in the trillions
Teever 1y ago
It isn't about whether or not they'll have a monopoly on drones, it's about the power balance shifting to be not so one sided on defense. For decades we've lived in a society where defending against these kinds of violent acts was far easier than committing them. That's changing, and it only has to change a little bit to have radical effects on society.

ffsm8 1y ago

I am not sure if you realize how hopelessly impossible that is. You're aware that the (to my knowledge, which is entirely based on documentaries) primary way drugs are shipped to the USA are drones nowadays? Some via air, some underwater etc There is just to much area and drones are tiny. It's infeasible to track them without spending insane amounts of money (and creating a total surveillance state as a by-product)

snickerbockers 1y ago
>I am not sure if you realize how hopelessly impossible that is. It's not impossible if it's predominantly automated. You have swarms of "police drones" on patrol actively scanning for other drones and when they see one that they don't like (some sort of signed certificate that authenticates the owner and their license) they shoot it down. It works as long as the "police drones" are plentiful and well dispersed to the point of maintaining dominance. >and creating a total surveillance state as a by-product that's what i meant when i said this brings its own host of problems. My point's not that our way of life will continue unabated my point is that this particular force multiplier goes both ways, and the defense will be a sort of "drone police corps". The biggest problems will be whatever happens outside of the "margin of error" (ie accidentally shooting down the wrong drones, civilians caught in crossfire, people hurt by falling debris) and the general end of any notion of privacy (not that America isn't already going in that direction anyways).
- trod1234 1y ago
  This concept's conclusion is fully sketched out in Neal Stephenson's Diamond Age.
  - snickerbockers 1y ago
    I guess I'll have to check that one out. I read Snow Crash a decade ago and it's one of my favorite books ever written but I never read anything else he wrote because (from what i understand looking at reviews and plot synopses) it's not all bizarre cyberpunk "not-quite-parody but also not-entirely-serious" like Snow Crash.
    - LargoLasskhyfv 1y ago
      Do so! It's great.
  - r721 1y ago
    This subthread also reminded me of Sheckley's Watchbird story (written in 1953!)

trod1234 1y ago

Agreed. This is the most likely outcome of this, and it won't be regular drones it will be a race to toner wars from Neal Stephenson's "A Young Lady's Illustrated Primer." Floating clouds of molecular drones ever-present designed to destroy other unauthorized drones, and that technology will enable the long walk on a short pier for those that violate phyle rules. Cookie cutters.

rightbyte 1y ago

In theory I guess the anti-drone drones could be armed with non-lethal things like nets or balls or whatever.

HDThoreaun 1y ago

This does not seem realistic. The number of drones you’d need to pull this off has got to be in the trillions

Teever 1y ago

It isn't about whether or not they'll have a monopoly on drones, it's about the power balance shifting to be not so one sided on defense. For decades we've lived in a society where defending against these kinds of violent acts was far easier than committing them. That's changing, and it only has to change a little bit to have radical effects on society.