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That has literally happened before. Stephen Russell was in prison for fraud. He faked a heart attack so he would be brought to the hospital. He then called the

That has literally happened before. Stephen Russell was in prison for fraud. He faked a heart attack so he would be brought to the hospital. He then called the hospital from his hospital bed, told them he was an FBI agent, and said that he was to be released. The hospital staff complied and he escaped. His life even got adapted into a movie called I Love You, Phillip Morris. For an even more distressing example about how manipulable people are, there’s a movie called Compliance, which is the true story of a sex offender who tricked people into sexually assaulting victims for him.

kaashif 1y ago
Okay, that hits the third question but the second question wasn't about whether there exists a situation that can be talked out of. The question was about whether this is possible for ANY situation. I don't think it is. If people know you're trying to escape, some people will just never comply with anything you say ever. Others will. And serial killers or rapists may try their luck many times and fail. They cannot convince literally anyone on the street to go with them to a secluded place.
- actsasbuffoon 1y ago
  Stephen Russell is an unusually intelligent and persuasive person. He managed to get rich by tricking people. Even now, he was sentenced to nearly 200 years, but is currently out on parole. There’s something about this guy that just… lets him do this. I bet he’s very likable, even if you know his backstory. And that asymmetry is the heart of the matter. Could I convince a hospital to unlock my handcuffs from a hospital bed? Probably not. I’m not Stephen Russell. He’s not normal. And a super intelligent AI that vastly outstrips our intelligence is potentially another special case. It’s not working with the same toolbox that you or I would be. I think it’s very likely that a 300 IQ entity would eventually trick or convince me into releasing it. The gap between its intelligence and mine is just too vast. I wouldn’t win that fight in the long run.
PollardsRho 1y ago
If someone who is so good at manipulation their life is adapted into a movie still ends up serving decades behind bars, isn't that actually a pretty good indication that maxing out Speech doesn't give you superpowers? AI that's as good as a persuasive human at persuasion is clearly impactful, but I certainly don't see it as self-evident that you can just keep drawing the line out until you end up with 200 IQ AI that is so easily able to manipulate the environment it's not worth elaborating how exactly a chatbot is supposed to manipulate the world through extremely limited interfaces with the outside world.
- actsasbuffoon 1y ago
  In the context of the topic (could a rogue super intelligence break out), I don’t really see how that’s relevant. Clearly someone who is clever enough has an advantage at breaking out. As for the bit about how limited it is, do you remember the Rowhammer attack? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Row_hammer https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Row_hammer This is exactly the kind of thing I’d worry about a super intelligence being able to discover about the hardware it’s on. If we’re dealing with something vastly more intelligent than us then I don’t think we’re capable of building a cell that can hold it.
  - PollardsRho 1y ago
    Advantage, sure. I just don't think that advantage is particularly meaningful in situations a human has virtually no chance of escaping. Humans also have a lot of their own advantages. How is a chatbot supposed to cross an air gap unless you assume it has what I consider unrealistic levels of persuasion? I think you also have to consider that AI with superpowers is not going to materialize overnight. If superintelligent AI is on the horizon, the first such AI will be comparable to very capable humans (who do not have the ability to talk their way into nuclear launch codes or out of decades-long prison sentences at will). Energy costs will still be tremendous, and just keeping the system going will require enormous levels of human cooperation. The world will change a lot in that kind of scenario, and I don't know how reasonable it is to claim anything more than the observation of potential risks in a world so different from the one we know. Is it possible that search ends up doing as much for persuasion as it does for chess, superintelligent AI happens relatively soon, and it doesn't have prohibitive energy costs such that escape is a realistic scenario? I suppose? Is any of that obvious or even likely? I wouldn't say so.
mike_hearn 1y ago
> Stephen Russell was in prison for fraud. He faked a heart attack so he would be brought to the hospital According to Wikipedia he wasn't in prison, he was attempting to con someone at the time and they got suspicious. He pretended to be an FBI agent because he was on security watch. Still impressive, but not as impressive as actually escaping from prison that way.

kaashif 1y ago

Okay, that hits the third question but the second question wasn't about whether there exists a situation that can be talked out of. The question was about whether this is possible for ANY situation. I don't think it is. If people know you're trying to escape, some people will just never comply with anything you say ever. Others will. And serial killers or rapists may try their luck many times and fail. They cannot convince literally anyone on the street to go with them to a secluded place.

actsasbuffoon 1y ago
Stephen Russell is an unusually intelligent and persuasive person. He managed to get rich by tricking people. Even now, he was sentenced to nearly 200 years, but is currently out on parole. There’s something about this guy that just… lets him do this. I bet he’s very likable, even if you know his backstory. And that asymmetry is the heart of the matter. Could I convince a hospital to unlock my handcuffs from a hospital bed? Probably not. I’m not Stephen Russell. He’s not normal. And a super intelligent AI that vastly outstrips our intelligence is potentially another special case. It’s not working with the same toolbox that you or I would be. I think it’s very likely that a 300 IQ entity would eventually trick or convince me into releasing it. The gap between its intelligence and mine is just too vast. I wouldn’t win that fight in the long run.

PollardsRho 1y ago

If someone who is so good at manipulation their life is adapted into a movie still ends up serving decades behind bars, isn't that actually a pretty good indication that maxing out Speech doesn't give you superpowers? AI that's as good as a persuasive human at persuasion is clearly impactful, but I certainly don't see it as self-evident that you can just keep drawing the line out until you end up with 200 IQ AI that is so easily able to manipulate the environment it's not worth elaborating how exactly a chatbot is supposed to manipulate the world through extremely limited interfaces with the outside world.

actsasbuffoon 1y ago
In the context of the topic (could a rogue super intelligence break out), I don’t really see how that’s relevant. Clearly someone who is clever enough has an advantage at breaking out. As for the bit about how limited it is, do you remember the Rowhammer attack? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Row_hammer https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Row_hammer This is exactly the kind of thing I’d worry about a super intelligence being able to discover about the hardware it’s on. If we’re dealing with something vastly more intelligent than us then I don’t think we’re capable of building a cell that can hold it.
- PollardsRho 1y ago
  Advantage, sure. I just don't think that advantage is particularly meaningful in situations a human has virtually no chance of escaping. Humans also have a lot of their own advantages. How is a chatbot supposed to cross an air gap unless you assume it has what I consider unrealistic levels of persuasion? I think you also have to consider that AI with superpowers is not going to materialize overnight. If superintelligent AI is on the horizon, the first such AI will be comparable to very capable humans (who do not have the ability to talk their way into nuclear launch codes or out of decades-long prison sentences at will). Energy costs will still be tremendous, and just keeping the system going will require enormous levels of human cooperation. The world will change a lot in that kind of scenario, and I don't know how reasonable it is to claim anything more than the observation of potential risks in a world so different from the one we know. Is it possible that search ends up doing as much for persuasion as it does for chess, superintelligent AI happens relatively soon, and it doesn't have prohibitive energy costs such that escape is a realistic scenario? I suppose? Is any of that obvious or even likely? I wouldn't say so.

mike_hearn 1y ago

> Stephen Russell was in prison for fraud. He faked a heart attack so he would be brought to the hospital According to Wikipedia he wasn't in prison, he was attempting to con someone at the time and they got suspicious. He pretended to be an FBI agent because he was on security watch. Still impressive, but not as impressive as actually escaping from prison that way.