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Yeah, I think I might wait for the MentourPilot take on this one. I can't see any benefit in speculating. Horrifying that it came down in a residential area wi

Yeah, I think I might wait for the MentourPilot take on this one. I can't see any benefit in speculating. Horrifying that it came down in a residential area with almost all its fuel still on board though. The aftermath is beyond belief.

FridayoLeary 1y ago
Yes. Unfortunately this year alone will give him quite a backlog. Every month there's been a couple of disasters or near disasters and there's no apparent connection between any of them.
- bartread 1y ago
  I haven't by any means been keeping count but it does feel like there have been a lot more incidents that usual this year, and certainly a lot more fatalities. What I can't work out whether that's recency bias, or because I've been watching a lot of MentourPilot with our daughters so I'm simply more attuned to this kind of news, or if there really are more of them. I certainly don't know if the rate of incidents per passenger mile flown is higher than usual.
  - jordanb 1y ago
    Probably chickens coming home to roost on the 2000s-era "flying is ultra-safe now, time to deregulate, disinvest, and capture value from efficiencies"
    - gedy 1y ago
      Deregulation has been a thing for 40-50 years
    - wat10000 1y ago
      DCA was good old-fashioned complacency and normalization of deviance. Aside from that, this year has been unremarkable in aviation safety.
  - FridayoLeary 1y ago
    There were enough that he made a video discussing it. Maybe because they've been particularly high profile incidents. Here's a list of plane crashes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incide...
  - quantumfissure 1y ago
    No, it's not worse. If you look through the list of deadly plane accidents, the last year has been average (4 vs. 3 avg). Since the deadly DCA collision in January, there are things making the news now that would never have in the past, so it seems like it's worse. Especially if the plane has "Boeing" written on the side. For example, hitting animals, tire blowouts, or ground equipment bumping into planes, which grounds them for inspection. When I worked for a major airline, those things are all actually pretty common and happen everywhere, all the time. It's just a method used to stoke fear and feed clicks. People find the most minute thing to complain about. Recently, there was an article about the antiquated FAA system using floppies. While the system is old and showing it's cracks, saying it uses floppies just makes it sound worse then it is. As of 2020, our mx crew were still plugging a Windows 98 laptop with DOS into Embraers and Bombardier Dash8s, and used floppies in Boeings (no Airbus or ATRs in our fleet for comparison).
    - chucksmash 1y ago
      Maybe globally it's an average year but the DCA crash alone makes it an extraordinary year in US commercial aviation. Not all crashes are created equal. A 10 person Cessna disappearing near Nome, Alaska !== mid-air collision above the Potomac. If you're looking at US news sources, I don't think you need to resort to clickbait and fearmongering to justify the increased focus.
      - quantumfissure 1y ago
        There is a media difference though since the DCA crash. Military and small planes (<10 PAX) crash all the time. We just never heard about it until after January. My point is the same, media sees crash, tries to drive clickage. On a personal level, I know three people that have died in small plane crashes in the Alaska wilderness in the last 15 years, which is so common that it didn't even get on local news. I have acquaintances that were in involved in two others elsewhere over the last few years. Small planes are unbelievably dangerous. Commercial jets, not so much.
        fhdkweig 1y ago
- prmph 1y ago
  Yep, looks like the return of regular airline crashes. The 2010s will probably be the apogee of airline safety for some time to come.
  - dyauspitr 1y ago
    Why though? What’s changing? With all the relevant data this would probably be a good problem for an LLM to “ponder”.
    - gosub100 1y ago
      Hiring shortages, policies that favor less skilled applicants, aging infrastructure, high demand for air travel.
    - lxgr 1y ago
      > Why though? What’s changing? I can mostly only speak for my own industry (software engineering), but subjectively, it seems like we lost a lot of institutional knowledge as well as organizational structures through Covid that will take a while to rebuild. Between people going into early retirement (I heard aviation was hit particularly hard by this), people changing careers and their replacements not having much in-office spin up time etc., and some industries/markets never returning to in-person work at all when it used to be common before, I have some theories on where we lost both.
apples_oranges 1y ago
I know it's not his fault, hate the player not the game, but he will make what off this crash (and his analysis ofc)? $10k? I remember long ago he said he would not report on crashes but that's what people want so no blame..
- sofixa 1y ago
  Most of his videos are on crashes. He has said he won't speculate on active investigations, but has already done videos on what is known, and preliminary reports.
  - apples_oranges 1y ago
    No, pretty sure long long ago before he was big, he said he won't do crashes period. But doesn't matter, and he can change his mind as he pleases.
    - randomNumber7 1y ago
      Some people have a spine and still get hate by braindead zombies.
    - sofixa 1y ago
      You're either misremembering or misunderstood something, or I'm not understanding what you mean, because Mentour Pilot literally has a channel with nothing but air crash investigation videos: https://youtube.com/@mentourpilot https://youtube.com/@mentourpilot He has one of the best air crash investigation journalists, Kyra Dempsey (aka Admiral Cloudberg) as one of the writers on the channel. They already have a YouTube Short listing the facts of the crash, and also have a longer video about the Jeju one. Only the facts, no speculation - they're waiting for the preliminary or even final report to make a full in depth video on it.
- 14 1y ago
  I hope he makes $20k. Or more. I enjoy his content and the insight he brings. Also many people make money from the tragedy of others. Morticians, coffin builders, clean up crews, construction workers, concrete companies…I could probably come up with 100 more examples. Just because their work is from the result of something tragic doesn’t mean it is any less important.
okdood64 1y ago
blancolirio on YT gives more timely but objective (i.e., tries to stick to the latest facts) takes on aviation incidents. There will be a fair bit of speculation still...
- progbits 1y ago
  He made a quick video on this one, but just listing questions we don't have answers to yet, and warning that there will be plenty of speculation. I expect he will have several follow ups as more facts come up.
dylan604 1y ago
9/11 showed us the damages of a plane crash with a full load of fuel can do and goes to show why dumping fuel is part of the procedures when planes are coming inf for a landing under "strained" conditions.
- sokoloff 1y ago
  Fuel dumping is overwhelmingly to prevent or minimize an overweight landing and subsequent brake/tire overheating and inspections. It’s got not much to do with minimizing fuel-fed fire after impact.
randomNumber7 1y ago
100% agreed on MentourPilot. He was the only one to not try to make money on jejuair speculation for example. Also as an engineer you can actually learn a lot about technical and social failures.
__m 1y ago
Compulsive debuggers, probably not uncommon here

FridayoLeary 1y ago

Yes. Unfortunately this year alone will give him quite a backlog. Every month there's been a couple of disasters or near disasters and there's no apparent connection between any of them.

bartread 1y ago
I haven't by any means been keeping count but it does feel like there have been a lot more incidents that usual this year, and certainly a lot more fatalities. What I can't work out whether that's recency bias, or because I've been watching a lot of MentourPilot with our daughters so I'm simply more attuned to this kind of news, or if there really are more of them. I certainly don't know if the rate of incidents per passenger mile flown is higher than usual.
- jordanb 1y ago
  Probably chickens coming home to roost on the 2000s-era "flying is ultra-safe now, time to deregulate, disinvest, and capture value from efficiencies"
  - gedy 1y ago
    Deregulation has been a thing for 40-50 years
  - wat10000 1y ago
    DCA was good old-fashioned complacency and normalization of deviance. Aside from that, this year has been unremarkable in aviation safety.
- FridayoLeary 1y ago
  There were enough that he made a video discussing it. Maybe because they've been particularly high profile incidents. Here's a list of plane crashes. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incide...
- quantumfissure 1y ago
  No, it's not worse. If you look through the list of deadly plane accidents, the last year has been average (4 vs. 3 avg). Since the deadly DCA collision in January, there are things making the news now that would never have in the past, so it seems like it's worse. Especially if the plane has "Boeing" written on the side. For example, hitting animals, tire blowouts, or ground equipment bumping into planes, which grounds them for inspection. When I worked for a major airline, those things are all actually pretty common and happen everywhere, all the time. It's just a method used to stoke fear and feed clicks. People find the most minute thing to complain about. Recently, there was an article about the antiquated FAA system using floppies. While the system is old and showing it's cracks, saying it uses floppies just makes it sound worse then it is. As of 2020, our mx crew were still plugging a Windows 98 laptop with DOS into Embraers and Bombardier Dash8s, and used floppies in Boeings (no Airbus or ATRs in our fleet for comparison).
  - chucksmash 1y ago
    Maybe globally it's an average year but the DCA crash alone makes it an extraordinary year in US commercial aviation. Not all crashes are created equal. A 10 person Cessna disappearing near Nome, Alaska !== mid-air collision above the Potomac. If you're looking at US news sources, I don't think you need to resort to clickbait and fearmongering to justify the increased focus.
    - quantumfissure 1y ago
      There is a media difference though since the DCA crash. Military and small planes (<10 PAX) crash all the time. We just never heard about it until after January. My point is the same, media sees crash, tries to drive clickage. On a personal level, I know three people that have died in small plane crashes in the Alaska wilderness in the last 15 years, which is so common that it didn't even get on local news. I have acquaintances that were in involved in two others elsewhere over the last few years. Small planes are unbelievably dangerous. Commercial jets, not so much.
      - fhdkweig 1y ago
prmph 1y ago
Yep, looks like the return of regular airline crashes. The 2010s will probably be the apogee of airline safety for some time to come.
- dyauspitr 1y ago
  Why though? What’s changing? With all the relevant data this would probably be a good problem for an LLM to “ponder”.
  - gosub100 1y ago
    Hiring shortages, policies that favor less skilled applicants, aging infrastructure, high demand for air travel.
  - lxgr 1y ago
    > Why though? What’s changing? I can mostly only speak for my own industry (software engineering), but subjectively, it seems like we lost a lot of institutional knowledge as well as organizational structures through Covid that will take a while to rebuild. Between people going into early retirement (I heard aviation was hit particularly hard by this), people changing careers and their replacements not having much in-office spin up time etc., and some industries/markets never returning to in-person work at all when it used to be common before, I have some theories on where we lost both.

apples_oranges 1y ago

I know it's not his fault, hate the player not the game, but he will make what off this crash (and his analysis ofc)? $10k? I remember long ago he said he would not report on crashes but that's what people want so no blame..

sofixa 1y ago
Most of his videos are on crashes. He has said he won't speculate on active investigations, but has already done videos on what is known, and preliminary reports.
- apples_oranges 1y ago
  No, pretty sure long long ago before he was big, he said he won't do crashes period. But doesn't matter, and he can change his mind as he pleases.
  - randomNumber7 1y ago
    Some people have a spine and still get hate by braindead zombies.
  - sofixa 1y ago
    You're either misremembering or misunderstood something, or I'm not understanding what you mean, because Mentour Pilot literally has a channel with nothing but air crash investigation videos: https://youtube.com/@mentourpilot https://youtube.com/@mentourpilot He has one of the best air crash investigation journalists, Kyra Dempsey (aka Admiral Cloudberg) as one of the writers on the channel. They already have a YouTube Short listing the facts of the crash, and also have a longer video about the Jeju one. Only the facts, no speculation - they're waiting for the preliminary or even final report to make a full in depth video on it.
14 1y ago
I hope he makes $20k. Or more. I enjoy his content and the insight he brings. Also many people make money from the tragedy of others. Morticians, coffin builders, clean up crews, construction workers, concrete companies…I could probably come up with 100 more examples. Just because their work is from the result of something tragic doesn’t mean it is any less important.

okdood64 1y ago

blancolirio on YT gives more timely but objective (i.e., tries to stick to the latest facts) takes on aviation incidents. There will be a fair bit of speculation still...

progbits 1y ago
He made a quick video on this one, but just listing questions we don't have answers to yet, and warning that there will be plenty of speculation. I expect he will have several follow ups as more facts come up.

dylan604 1y ago

9/11 showed us the damages of a plane crash with a full load of fuel can do and goes to show why dumping fuel is part of the procedures when planes are coming inf for a landing under "strained" conditions.

sokoloff 1y ago
Fuel dumping is overwhelmingly to prevent or minimize an overweight landing and subsequent brake/tire overheating and inspections. It’s got not much to do with minimizing fuel-fed fire after impact.

randomNumber7 1y ago

100% agreed on MentourPilot. He was the only one to not try to make money on jejuair speculation for example. Also as an engineer you can actually learn a lot about technical and social failures.

__m 1y ago

Compulsive debuggers, probably not uncommon here