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The optimists got the timeline wrong but they were closer to the truth than those who said it would never happen. I have no idea how close AGI is but there is c

The optimists got the timeline wrong but they were closer to the truth than those who said it would never happen. I have no idea how close AGI is but there is clearly no AI winter around the corner as some HNers have been predicting[0]. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23886325 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23886325

yencabulator 1y ago
Solving a small subset of the problem != solving the problem. I'll believe self-driving is solved when I can order an automated ride to a BLM/forest service dirt road I only have GPS coordinates for and that has cell service on the hilltop only.
- olalonde 1y ago
  I'm pretty sure that problem is solved from a technical point of view - though it might not be commercially available yet due to economic and regulatory reasons.
  - yencabulator 1y ago
    You're trying to move the goalpost from "self-driving" to "self-driving in scenarios where the route has been fully premapped". Might as well move it to "as long as there's no semi crossing the road" to cover for Tesla. Centrally-managed clean and rigid setting is not the full extent of the problem domain.
    - olalonde 1y ago
      On the contrary, I was saying that self-driving in scenarios where the road has not been fully premapped is solved.
      - yencabulator 1y ago
        Meanwhile, all the self-driving that's currently happening is within well-controlled small geographic areas and some limited interstates/highways, and based on matching observed surroundings to pre-made very detailed maps. Okay, sure. As I said, I'll believe it's solved when these limitations are no longer necessary for it to work. You can choose to believe it based on a research project or marketing materials.
  - tsimionescu 1y ago
    It has very much not been. None of the players on the market are able to do anything close to this. You either have self-driving on carefully pre-mapped routes, with on-call human suport ready to jump in for more complex cases (Waymo), self-driving in very specific conditions with few seconds notice to the human driver (highways, with speeds below 60 - Mercedes), or not self driving, where the human driver has to be ready to intervene with no notice whatsoever (Tesla).

yencabulator 1y ago

Solving a small subset of the problem != solving the problem. I'll believe self-driving is solved when I can order an automated ride to a BLM/forest service dirt road I only have GPS coordinates for and that has cell service on the hilltop only.

olalonde 1y ago
I'm pretty sure that problem is solved from a technical point of view - though it might not be commercially available yet due to economic and regulatory reasons.
- yencabulator 1y ago
  You're trying to move the goalpost from "self-driving" to "self-driving in scenarios where the route has been fully premapped". Might as well move it to "as long as there's no semi crossing the road" to cover for Tesla. Centrally-managed clean and rigid setting is not the full extent of the problem domain.
  - olalonde 1y ago
    On the contrary, I was saying that self-driving in scenarios where the road has not been fully premapped is solved.
    - yencabulator 1y ago
      Meanwhile, all the self-driving that's currently happening is within well-controlled small geographic areas and some limited interstates/highways, and based on matching observed surroundings to pre-made very detailed maps. Okay, sure. As I said, I'll believe it's solved when these limitations are no longer necessary for it to work. You can choose to believe it based on a research project or marketing materials.
- tsimionescu 1y ago
  It has very much not been. None of the players on the market are able to do anything close to this. You either have self-driving on carefully pre-mapped routes, with on-call human suport ready to jump in for more complex cases (Waymo), self-driving in very specific conditions with few seconds notice to the human driver (highways, with speeds below 60 - Mercedes), or not self driving, where the human driver has to be ready to intervene with no notice whatsoever (Tesla).