2 ms·

> The least-likely part of the work is behind us; the scientific insights that got us to systems like GPT-4 and o3 were hard-won, but will take us very far. >

by k2xl 1y ago

> The least-likely part of the work is behind us; the scientific insights that got us to systems like GPT-4 and o3 were hard-won, but will take us very far. > 2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights Interesting the level of confidence compared to recent comments by Sundar [1]. Satya [2] also is a bit more reserved in his optimism. [1] https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/google-ceo-agi-is-impossible-with-current-tech https://www.windowscentral.com/software-apps/google-ceo-agi-... [2] https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/microsoft-ceo-says-there-is-an-overbuild-of-ai-systems-dismisses-agi-milestones-as-show-of-progress https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

blibble 1y ago
> Interesting the level of confidence compared to recent comments by Sundar [1]. Satya [2] also is a bit more reserved in his optimism. well yeah, you can't continue the ponzi scheme if you say "aw shit, it's gonna take another 10 years" Microsoft/Google will continue to exist without, OpenAI won't
thcipriani 1y ago
Gotta put the optimism in context vs. previous Sam Altman writing. Here he says: > Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp. Six months ago[0] he said: > We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. This time: > we have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways My summary: ChatGPT is already pretty great and we can make it cheaper and that will help humanity because...etc Which moves the goal posts quite a bit vs: we'll have AGI pretty soon. Could be he didn't reiterate we'd have AGI soon because he thought that was obvious/off-topic. Or it could be that he's feeling less bullish, too. [0]: <https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections>
lossolo 1y ago
In a recent interview with The Verge (available on YouTube), the DeepMind CEO said that LLMs based on transformers can't create anything truly novel.

by k2xl 1y ago

blibble 1y ago

> Interesting the level of confidence compared to recent comments by Sundar [1]. Satya [2] also is a bit more reserved in his optimism. well yeah, you can't continue the ponzi scheme if you say "aw shit, it's gonna take another 10 years" Microsoft/Google will continue to exist without, OpenAI won't

thcipriani 1y ago

Gotta put the optimism in context vs. previous Sam Altman writing. Here he says: > Intelligence too cheap to meter is well within grasp. Six months ago[0] he said: > We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. This time: > we have recently built systems that are smarter than people in many ways My summary: ChatGPT is already pretty great and we can make it cheaper and that will help humanity because...etc Which moves the goal posts quite a bit vs: we'll have AGI pretty soon. Could be he didn't reiterate we'd have AGI soon because he thought that was obvious/off-topic. Or it could be that he's feeling less bullish, too. [0]: <https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections https://blog.samaltman.com/reflections>

lossolo 1y ago

In a recent interview with The Verge (available on YouTube), the DeepMind CEO said that LLMs based on transformers can't create anything truly novel.