Those examples are pretty bad, though. The guard deters thieves by mere presence - just like how an apparently-locked door, even if unlocked, deters more thiev

Those examples are pretty bad, though. The guard deters thieves by mere presence - just like how an apparently-locked door, even if unlocked, deters more thieves than a wide-open door. The example doctor provides psychological support and real advice when things are _obviously_ wrong. Those are things that are way more useful than a rock (also, in real cases, patients do return after 2 weeks). (the futurist provides no value whatsoever, here we do agree :P) But I feel the entire underlying message is questionable. "Pretty good heuristics" are honestly pretty good! Sometimes (oftentimes, even) it's all you need, and it's much better than doing the extensive research. You should only do the extensive research for the "volcano" scenario, where the consequences are dire - otherwise, you're probably wasting time)