4 ms·

Europe is heading towards less than half the replacement rate. Japan is already there. South Korea is at one third the replacement rate. This is the story al

Europe is heading towards less than half the replacement rate. Japan is already there. South Korea is at one third the replacement rate. This is the story almost worldwide, and soon can be expected to be worldwide. In China and India there is also sex selection abortions and male preference to make things worse. Exponential on the way up, and on the way down. Reversing such steep declines isn't possible in one generation without a "Marshall plan" for fertility, which means that in one generation the next cohort of fertile females will be half the size of today's if today's fertility rate is half of replacement. If the situation persists then the next cohort will be one quarter of today's. These declines are much sharper than past growth rates. What if these fertility declines persist for three generations? How many generations can they persist for anyways?

edhelas 1y ago
How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? What goes up ends up to going down at one point. We are reaching some limits, in a society that was used to think that we could push boundaries continuously endlessly for several centuries.
- cryptonector 1y ago
  > How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? Declines are also exponential. Plateuing could have been a thing. But instead we're now in a steep decline mode. It will be 150 years before populations increase again.
- cryptonector 1y ago
  > How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? Probably many, as long as the growth rate was low enough, or zero. We can't grow forever, but that doesn't mean that the alternative must be to decline and overshoot whatever is a good population size (but alas this is what we are now bound to do).
unstablediffusi 1y ago
Japan gets singled out all the time (the WEF types really want it to be more vibrant for some reason, so every other day, there's an article about how "Japan will not survive" without open borders), but its TFR is like 10% below most Western countries. SK though... yeah, something is uniquely broken there.
alexey-salmin 1y ago
> Reversing such steep declines isn't possible in one generation without a "Marshall plan" for fertility "Reversal" isn't possible with our without Marshall plan. What you need is young females and what you have is aging population, no amount of money or political will can change that. Even if we (I'm in Europe) manage to get out of decline, the recovery will take several generations which means a century of time. South Korea is screwed way beyond repair by my estimates.

edhelas 1y ago

How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? What goes up ends up to going down at one point. We are reaching some limits, in a society that was used to think that we could push boundaries continuously endlessly for several centuries.

cryptonector 1y ago
> How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? Declines are also exponential. Plateuing could have been a thing. But instead we're now in a steep decline mode. It will be 150 years before populations increase again.
cryptonector 1y ago
> How many generation it could have continue to grow exponentially ? Probably many, as long as the growth rate was low enough, or zero. We can't grow forever, but that doesn't mean that the alternative must be to decline and overshoot whatever is a good population size (but alas this is what we are now bound to do).

unstablediffusi 1y ago

Japan gets singled out all the time (the WEF types really want it to be more vibrant for some reason, so every other day, there's an article about how "Japan will not survive" without open borders), but its TFR is like 10% below most Western countries. SK though... yeah, something is uniquely broken there.

alexey-salmin 1y ago

> Reversing such steep declines isn't possible in one generation without a "Marshall plan" for fertility "Reversal" isn't possible with our without Marshall plan. What you need is young females and what you have is aging population, no amount of money or political will can change that. Even if we (I'm in Europe) manage to get out of decline, the recovery will take several generations which means a century of time. South Korea is screwed way beyond repair by my estimates.