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It's not that dire: it is possible that some bright young person appears tomorrow with a good method for creating an AI such that it will stay aligned even if i
by hollerith 1y ago
It's not that dire: it is possible that some bright young person appears tomorrow with a good method for creating an AI such that it will stay aligned even if it become massively superhuman in its capabilities. If that happens, then Eliezer and Nate will withdraw their objection to going ahead with frontier AI research -- provided of course that they can understand the bright young person's explanation for why the method will work.
That is unlikely though: we will probably have to wait decades before anyone devises such a method and such an explanation. Eliezer and Nate recommend research into human cognitive enhancement to make the wait shorter.
Note that the approach used in all the frontier AIs of the last 13 years (namely, deep learning) might prove too difficult to align with the result that the bright young person (more realistically, a series of bright young people building on each other's breakthroughs) must come up with an alternative approach to generating the AI's cognitive capabilities.