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Tim doesn't address this in his essay, so I'm going to harp on it: "AI will soon be able to...". That phrase is far too load-bearing. The part of AI hype that s
by cratermoon 1y ago
Tim doesn't address this in his essay,
so I'm going to harp on it:
"AI will soon be able to...".
That phrase is far too load-bearing.
The part of AI hype that says,
"sure, it's kinda janky now, but this is just the beginning"
has been repeated for 3 years now,
and everything has been just around the corner the entire time.
It's the first step fallacy,
saying that if we can build a really tall ladder now,
surely we'll soon be able to build a ladder tall enough to reach the moon.
The reality is that we've seen incremental and diminishing returns,
and the promises haven't been met.
- tptacek 1y agoDiminishing returns? Am I reading right that you believe the last 6 months has been marked by a decrease in the capability of these systems?
- cratermoon 1y agoThat's not what diminishing returns means.
- tptacek 1y agoThat's true, but it's nearest bit of evidence at hand to how the "returns" could be "diminishing". I'm fine if someone wants to provide any other coherent claim as to how we're in a "diminishing returns" state with coding LLMs right now.
- cratermoon 1y agohttps://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/ai-scaling-laws-are-showing-diminishing-returns-forcing-ai-labs-to-change-course/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/20/ai-scaling-laws-are-showin...
- tptacek 1y agoWhat's the implication of this story to someone who had started writing code with LLMs 6 months ago, and is today as well. How has their experience changed? Have the returns to that activity diminished?