3 ms·

That smooth adaptation only works while there are alternatives, and while market speculation doesn't apply - ie. while there's slack in the system, and no gamin

• csense 14y ago
  > I wonder what essential resources could end up having no viable alternatives in a lifetime? Not many. Most rare resources are durable, i.e. used in applications where they aren't destroyed. So if indium reserves in the ground run out, then as the prices rise, (1) the prices of new devices that need indium will rise, discouraging their adoption and (2) the scrap prices of old devices that have indium will rise, until it becomes profitable to recycle them to create a new supply. At a fundamental physical level, if you have a rare substance made of common elements (e.g. many fuels and plastics are just H, C and O in various arrangements) there's usually a chemical process you can use to create them with basically only energy as input. If you have a rare substance that is partly or entirely made of one or more rare elements, you can generally create them by refining the products of nuclear reactions (e.g. this is where plutonium comes from). Where lack of a particular material becomes an obvious bottleneck, money will flow into R&D which will unlock more alternatives over time (we've known oil is a bottleneck since the oil shocks of the '70s if not earlier, think of all the billions that have flowed into alternate energy R&D between then and now, and how many new things we have like wind, solar, geothermal, hybrids, biofuels, synfuels, etc., or energy-efficient CPU's with dynamic frequency scaling and market competition on performance-per-watt metrics. These do work and can substitute for oil in many applications.) Eventually asteroid mining will probably become a very profitable way to produce certain key materials (rare earth elements do come to mind) because it will turn out to be more a cost-effective way to produce some materials than chemical or nuclear reactions. Especially if we can figure out ways to utilize them that don't involve shuttling things into and out of Earth's gravity well so we can use extremely energy-efficient ion drives that can cross the solar system on a few pounds of fuel instead of rockets that use tons of chemical propellants. Perhaps self-sufficient space factories, entirely robotic, which build computers on asteroids using local materials, which when finished are powered and linked to the Internet by solar or nuclear power, rented as a new EC2 instance by the hour at dirt-cheap prices (but still a profitable business since the manufacturer doesn't have to bid high to win some of Earth's dwindling local supply of rare earths, the power plant doesn't have to worry about where to dump its nuclear waste since it's a million miles from the nearest human, and the R&D costs can be amortized over a thousand-asteroid deployment).