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Each Waymo vehicle is probably close to half a million USD in just hardware cost. I don’t think fixed route transport infrastructure is going to have trouble c

Each Waymo vehicle is probably close to half a million USD in just hardware cost. I don’t think fixed route transport infrastructure is going to have trouble competing on efficiency.

cyberax 1y ago
The hardware costs for Waymo are estimated at $30k.
- digitalPhonix 1y ago
  Source? They were targeting $7.5k for their in house honeycomb lidars and they have 12 of them - that’s 90k already. https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/27/22644370/waymo-lidar-stop-selling-autonomous-cars-laser-bear https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/27/22644370/waymo-lidar-stop... They also aren’t close to the $7.5k target (there isn’t any public source for that so you’ll have to take my word for it). Also $30k wouldn’t even cover the base vehicle.
  - cyberax 1y ago
    This is an estimation for the self-driving hardware cost (computers, LIDAR, sensors). It does not include the base car price, as it can be easily optimized down to almost nothing (sub $10k). The price is somewhat of a guess, several years ago, the hardware in Waymo was priced at $130k by Munro&Associates. But since then the cost of the LIDAR sensors fell by 90% or so, reducing the main expense. And Baidu has cars on the road that cost $30k for the _entire_ car. So presumably, so even a couple of pricier sensors won't affect the estimate too much.
    - rafram 1y ago
      > include the base car price, as it can be easily optimized down to almost nothing (sub $10k). Waymo uses brand-new electric Jaguars.
      - cyberax 1y ago
        Sure. Because why not? The cars are in the experimental stage, so they might as well use nice ones. But there is no _reason_ to use Jaguars and not specially-built smaller and less powerful cars, when Waymo finally starts a real rollout.
    - digitalPhonix 1y ago
      Source? None of those numbers make sense. > The price is somewhat of a guess, several years ago, the hardware in Waymo was priced at $130k by Munro&Associates 10 years ago they had even more sensors dotting the car, instead of one honeycomb on each corner they had 2, so I find $130k hard to believe given what we know about the sensor kit today. > But since then the cost of the LIDAR sensors fell by 90% or so, reducing the main expense. I do not know of any lidar that has done that, and Waymo makes their own and we know their price(-ish) (and quantity). I think they’ve actually gone up in price (but also capability - honeycomb 1 vs gen 2).
- cycomanic 1y ago
  Are you talking about raw material costs? Or is that one of these extrapolations of if we scale everything to millions of cars and realise no inefficiencies and nobody making any money in the supply chain?
  - cyberax 1y ago
    I'm talking about the current cost of the self-driving system, that is already produced by companies that charge a significant markup. With volume, it will go down more. I'm not including the base vehicle in the cost. It's highly variable, and can be as low as $10k for small personal intra-city taxis. China has already launched a $30k taxi: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/05/14/baidu-launches-new-28000-robotaxi-in-wuhan/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/05/14/baidu-... This _completely_ blows any transit out of the competition. Literally nothing can come even close in the end-to-end efficiency.
    - cycomanic 1y ago
      Why does it blow away any other public transit? That can't be true because if you put the same self driving tech into a bus, you already am an order of magnitude cheaper per passenger (likely more). Moreover let's assume robotaxis are cornering the market and make all other forms of transport non viable. Why would the public then maintain the roads? So at that point at least costs are suddenly going to explode.
      - cyberax 1y ago
        Sigh. People are WAAAY too accepting of urbanist propaganda. Buses are _barely_ more effective than cars. A regular passenger car with 4 people is more efficient than a city bus. An EV needs 2.5 people (these numbers are for the US). The explanation is simple: 1. Buses have to drive _all_ _the_ _time_, even when there are few passengers. As a result, the average bus load tends to be around 10-20 people. And you can not increase the bus interval to compensate for it because it makes off-rush-hour bus commutes impractical. 2. Buses have INCREDIBLY polluting components: 2-3 drivers for each bus needed to provide the service. They are by far the dirtiest part of the bus. This part can be removed with the self-driving hardware, but... A full self-driving bus also makes no sense. It defeats the main advantage of self-driving: door-to-door transportation. That being said, self-driving mini-buses seating 6-10 people are a good idea for rush hour transit.

Each Waymo vehicle is probably close to half a million USD in just hardware cost. I don’t think fixed route transport infrastructure is going to have trouble competing on efficiency.

cyberax 1y ago

The hardware costs for Waymo are estimated at $30k.

digitalPhonix 1y ago
Source? They were targeting $7.5k for their in house honeycomb lidars and they have 12 of them - that’s 90k already. https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/27/22644370/waymo-lidar-stop-selling-autonomous-cars-laser-bear https://www.theverge.com/2021/8/27/22644370/waymo-lidar-stop... They also aren’t close to the $7.5k target (there isn’t any public source for that so you’ll have to take my word for it). Also $30k wouldn’t even cover the base vehicle.
- cyberax 1y ago
  This is an estimation for the self-driving hardware cost (computers, LIDAR, sensors). It does not include the base car price, as it can be easily optimized down to almost nothing (sub $10k). The price is somewhat of a guess, several years ago, the hardware in Waymo was priced at $130k by Munro&Associates. But since then the cost of the LIDAR sensors fell by 90% or so, reducing the main expense. And Baidu has cars on the road that cost $30k for the _entire_ car. So presumably, so even a couple of pricier sensors won't affect the estimate too much.
  - rafram 1y ago
    > include the base car price, as it can be easily optimized down to almost nothing (sub $10k). Waymo uses brand-new electric Jaguars.
    - cyberax 1y ago
      Sure. Because why not? The cars are in the experimental stage, so they might as well use nice ones. But there is no _reason_ to use Jaguars and not specially-built smaller and less powerful cars, when Waymo finally starts a real rollout.
  - digitalPhonix 1y ago
    Source? None of those numbers make sense. > The price is somewhat of a guess, several years ago, the hardware in Waymo was priced at $130k by Munro&Associates 10 years ago they had even more sensors dotting the car, instead of one honeycomb on each corner they had 2, so I find $130k hard to believe given what we know about the sensor kit today. > But since then the cost of the LIDAR sensors fell by 90% or so, reducing the main expense. I do not know of any lidar that has done that, and Waymo makes their own and we know their price(-ish) (and quantity). I think they’ve actually gone up in price (but also capability - honeycomb 1 vs gen 2).
cycomanic 1y ago
Are you talking about raw material costs? Or is that one of these extrapolations of if we scale everything to millions of cars and realise no inefficiencies and nobody making any money in the supply chain?
- cyberax 1y ago
  I'm talking about the current cost of the self-driving system, that is already produced by companies that charge a significant markup. With volume, it will go down more. I'm not including the base vehicle in the cost. It's highly variable, and can be as low as $10k for small personal intra-city taxis. China has already launched a $30k taxi: https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/05/14/baidu-launches-new-28000-robotaxi-in-wuhan/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2024/05/14/baidu-... This _completely_ blows any transit out of the competition. Literally nothing can come even close in the end-to-end efficiency.
  - cycomanic 1y ago
    Why does it blow away any other public transit? That can't be true because if you put the same self driving tech into a bus, you already am an order of magnitude cheaper per passenger (likely more). Moreover let's assume robotaxis are cornering the market and make all other forms of transport non viable. Why would the public then maintain the roads? So at that point at least costs are suddenly going to explode.
    - cyberax 1y ago
      Sigh. People are WAAAY too accepting of urbanist propaganda. Buses are _barely_ more effective than cars. A regular passenger car with 4 people is more efficient than a city bus. An EV needs 2.5 people (these numbers are for the US). The explanation is simple: 1. Buses have to drive _all_ _the_ _time_, even when there are few passengers. As a result, the average bus load tends to be around 10-20 people. And you can not increase the bus interval to compensate for it because it makes off-rush-hour bus commutes impractical. 2. Buses have INCREDIBLY polluting components: 2-3 drivers for each bus needed to provide the service. They are by far the dirtiest part of the bus. This part can be removed with the self-driving hardware, but... A full self-driving bus also makes no sense. It defeats the main advantage of self-driving: door-to-door transportation. That being said, self-driving mini-buses seating 6-10 people are a good idea for rush hour transit.