3 ms·
> You seem to be nitpicking on semantics for no real reason. I guess I didn't interpret your statement about "several decades of almost zero low-interest rates
by kgwgk 1y ago
> You seem to be nitpicking on semantics for no real reason.
I guess I didn't interpret your statement about "several decades of almost zero low-interest rates" between 1990 and 2020 loosely enough.
> You also seem to have messed up your math
Your only issue seems to be with taxes and I explicitly mentioned that I didn't consider them, just like I didn't consider reinvestment until the end of the ten years period and I used rounded down yields and rounded up inflation numbers.
You say taxes can be anywhere from 10% to 37% - but choose to apply 37% to show the "error".
Let's consider taxes. 40% if you want, why not.
You buy in January 1990 a 10-year bond with a 8.36% coupon trading at par for $1k [for simplicity I use the monthly averages from https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/226/tnc_qh_pars_1.xls https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/226/tnc_qh_pars_1.xls]. You get $83.6 per year, after taxes at 40% you keep $50.2. Let's say you put them in a box because you are too lazy to reinvest them. You will get then the $1000 back for a total of $1502.
$1000 in January 1990 are $1325 in January 2000.
$1502 are more than $1325. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.)
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For 2000-2010 (6.88%) you have $1000 + 10 $68.8 (100%-40%) = $1413.
$1000 in January 2000 are $1284 in January 2010.
$1413 are more than $1284. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.)
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For 2010-2020 (3.87%) you have $1000 + 10 $38.7 (100%-40%) = $1232.
$1000 in January 2010 are $1190 in January 2020.
$1232 are more than $1190. (And that's with high taxes and without reinvestment.)
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It seems that you agree that over the three decades being discussed bonds did better than inflation (even after taxes) so I'm not sure why do you think I messed something up or what were you trying to explain to me.
> You still haven't broken even in purchasing power from the previous year
You're ignoring that the bond has appreciated from the previous year keeping purchasing power intact.