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Misleading title. Has nothing to say about working, i.e paid employment, with AI apps. The main claim in the post: Their portfolio companies have shown an impr

by nilirl 1y ago

Misleading title. Has nothing to say about working, i.e paid employment, with AI apps. The main claim in the post: Their portfolio companies have shown an improved rate of accumulating revenue ever since LLMs took off. Weakest part of the post: No attempt at explaining how or why a LLM affects these numbers. They allude to 'shipping speed' and 'product iteration', but how an LLM helps these functions is left unexplored. There's an implied deductive argument that a LLM can write some code, so obviously shipping speed is faster, so obviously revenue is faster. But the argument is never explored for magnitude of effect or defended against examples where shipping faster or using LLMs doesn't equal faster revenue. Also, nothing about sampling bias, size or spread. Overall: Probably meant as a confidence boost to the sleep-deprived founders out there. But teaches nothing.

jonasft 1y ago
I just realized you can slightly tweak his comment to fit almost all articles on AI/LLMs/etc lately
athrowaway3z 1y ago
> Probably meant as a confidence boost to the sleep-deprived founders out there. But teaches nothing. The post insist 2 to 4 million ARR in 1 year is the new norm. My guess its meant for their own investors and get founders to undervalue their achievements (Or learn to get creative with what ARR means).
teekert 1y ago
Exactly this. They say increased delivery speed etc. No proof that it’s not at least as feasible that “the Covid + cheap money induced bubble” just started increasing in size faster… Because it’s just too painful of it wouldn’t.
9cb14c1ec0 1y ago
Reminds me so much of the no-code bubble maybe 10 years ago, which also was full of big loud talk about shipping speed, product iteration, and developer obsolescence.
- ldjkfkdsjnv 1y ago
  except this time its computers with intelligence? this is nothing like no code
  - ashwinsundar 1y ago
    Were computers not intelligent before the latest AI wave? What is “intelligence”, with regards to computers?
- unhappy_meaning 1y ago
  Slightly off topic but as someone who was in the "no-code" or "low-code" bubble some time ago as a "consultant", the sale tactics of these companies are slimy, cutthroat, and lots of fluff. Client will go around saying they need an app or a thing and they reach a no-code company who promise they can deliver a working MVP at sprint 0 (~2 weeks). They charge a lot of $$$ and promises what would be construed at 24/7 support. If they get the contract, the "consultants" are worked to the bone in the beginning because managers need to hit their marks, make their C-suite happy, and ultimately try and keep the client as a long term paying customer. This isn't anything out of the ordinary but I just had to rant that no-code is BS but it's still a flourishing market.
  - namaria 1y ago
    Physics: if you increase energy flow into a closed system its entropy will rise Tech company: we made you a tool that allows you to increase energy flows into your closed systems AND decrease their entropy! Software engineers: thank you for increasing the demand for manual entropy management and getting our pay to new heights while proclaiming our demise as a class.
browningstreet 1y ago
Per this statement from their conclusion: > Startups are working faster than ever, and both businesses and consumers are demonstrating high willingness to pay for new products. ..I feel like the focus was more "offering (generative) AI features" than "built with AI", as in startups being AI forward for their ICPs are building businesses faster than the incumbents who are still trying to figure out how to wedge AI into their tech debt laden product landscape.
- nilirl 1y ago
  Even so, the increased rate of revenue generation cannot be explained by AI features since all the other (read: not skyrocketing) startups also offer AI features. Did these portfolio companies just get the UX right? That would mean their entire portfolio, across industries, just happens to be filled with exceptional designers of products, who all simultaneosly cracked the UX for their respective industries. A simpler inquiry: What if the cause of this revenue growth is not on the startup/VC side but on the buyer side? Why are more companies rushing out there willing to spend more than before? Here we have some candidates to consider: FOMO, labor efficiency, excitement. Now, we have economics (behavioral and regular) to form a causal narrative; we have loss aversion and job cuts as incentives. So, based on this post can we say this is a better time to start a startup than before? I don't think so. Can we say that if you do start one with the same odds of success as before, grow it to a VC happy size, and have AI somewhere in the offering, you'll probably have more revenue than companies of a similar size from a few years ago? Yes, I think we can say that.

by nilirl 1y ago

jonasft 1y ago

I just realized you can slightly tweak his comment to fit almost all articles on AI/LLMs/etc lately

athrowaway3z 1y ago

> Probably meant as a confidence boost to the sleep-deprived founders out there. But teaches nothing. The post insist 2 to 4 million ARR in 1 year is the new norm. My guess its meant for their own investors and get founders to undervalue their achievements (Or learn to get creative with what ARR means).

teekert 1y ago

Exactly this. They say increased delivery speed etc. No proof that it’s not at least as feasible that “the Covid + cheap money induced bubble” just started increasing in size faster… Because it’s just too painful of it wouldn’t.

9cb14c1ec0 1y ago

Reminds me so much of the no-code bubble maybe 10 years ago, which also was full of big loud talk about shipping speed, product iteration, and developer obsolescence.

ldjkfkdsjnv 1y ago
except this time its computers with intelligence? this is nothing like no code
- ashwinsundar 1y ago
  Were computers not intelligent before the latest AI wave? What is “intelligence”, with regards to computers?
unhappy_meaning 1y ago
Slightly off topic but as someone who was in the "no-code" or "low-code" bubble some time ago as a "consultant", the sale tactics of these companies are slimy, cutthroat, and lots of fluff. Client will go around saying they need an app or a thing and they reach a no-code company who promise they can deliver a working MVP at sprint 0 (~2 weeks). They charge a lot of $$$ and promises what would be construed at 24/7 support. If they get the contract, the "consultants" are worked to the bone in the beginning because managers need to hit their marks, make their C-suite happy, and ultimately try and keep the client as a long term paying customer. This isn't anything out of the ordinary but I just had to rant that no-code is BS but it's still a flourishing market.
- namaria 1y ago
  Physics: if you increase energy flow into a closed system its entropy will rise Tech company: we made you a tool that allows you to increase energy flows into your closed systems AND decrease their entropy! Software engineers: thank you for increasing the demand for manual entropy management and getting our pay to new heights while proclaiming our demise as a class.

browningstreet 1y ago

Per this statement from their conclusion: > Startups are working faster than ever, and both businesses and consumers are demonstrating high willingness to pay for new products. ..I feel like the focus was more "offering (generative) AI features" than "built with AI", as in startups being AI forward for their ICPs are building businesses faster than the incumbents who are still trying to figure out how to wedge AI into their tech debt laden product landscape.

nilirl 1y ago
Even so, the increased rate of revenue generation cannot be explained by AI features since all the other (read: not skyrocketing) startups also offer AI features. Did these portfolio companies just get the UX right? That would mean their entire portfolio, across industries, just happens to be filled with exceptional designers of products, who all simultaneosly cracked the UX for their respective industries. A simpler inquiry: What if the cause of this revenue growth is not on the startup/VC side but on the buyer side? Why are more companies rushing out there willing to spend more than before? Here we have some candidates to consider: FOMO, labor efficiency, excitement. Now, we have economics (behavioral and regular) to form a causal narrative; we have loss aversion and job cuts as incentives. So, based on this post can we say this is a better time to start a startup than before? I don't think so. Can we say that if you do start one with the same odds of success as before, grow it to a VC happy size, and have AI somewhere in the offering, you'll probably have more revenue than companies of a similar size from a few years ago? Yes, I think we can say that.