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There's approximately zero percent chance of this actually happening.

ben_w 1y ago
I dunno, if Musk chickens out I'd expect Trump to try to punish him by cancelling it anyway. I don't see Trump caring what happens to the ISS, up to and including uncontrolled re-entry.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Should call his bluff and move to accelerate deorbiting of the ISS. Can always nationalize SpaceX for national security if needed. Musk calls for deorbiting ISS “as soon as possible” - https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-as-possible/ https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-... - February 20th, 2025
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- ceejayoz 1y ago
  They're already selling Dragon flights to private citizens and organizations. They'll keep sending Isaacman up again if he'll pay for it. They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.
  - ben_w 1y ago
    > They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space. Yes, but does Trump care?
  - TheAlchemist 1y ago
    SpaceX is dead without NASA and government contracts. Starlink is Tesla all over again - projections of profitability going exponential, only to be met with reality some years later.
    - ceejayoz 1y ago
      SpaceX will get nationalized under the Defense Production Act long before it's allowed to die.
      - TheAlchemist 1y ago
        Yes 100% agree. Just wanted to point out that this is not a normal commercial relationship. NASA / DOD needs SpaceX (for now) and if Musk thinks he can just stop working with / for them and continue his rocket business as usual, he's getting really delusional.
        deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - VOIPThrowaway2 1y ago
        They did it to Iridium when it went bankrupt. DOD basically got it running again with a bunch of money.
insane_dreamer 1y ago
do not underestimate the ego (and resultant stupidity) of either musk or trump
selivanovp 1y ago
Yeah, pretty sure that they'll just nationalize SpaceX to prevent it from happening, but not gonna lie, it'd be funny to see how USA government would have to crawl back to Russia for ISS resupply.
- rsynnott 1y ago
  They could always ask the ESA to revive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle , but human access might be more of a problem.
  - echoangle 1y ago
    They don’t need ESA for unmanned supplies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft)
    - rsynnott 1y ago
      While that exists, it's definitely on the small side. In particular, for reboosting, it's likely inadequate.
jrs235 1y ago
When does Trump nationalize SpaceX?
msgodel 1y ago
I bought DXYZ during the dip from all this. I feel the same way.

I dunno, if Musk chickens out I'd expect Trump to try to punish him by cancelling it anyway. I don't see Trump caring what happens to the ISS, up to and including uncontrolled re-entry.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Should call his bluff and move to accelerate deorbiting of the ISS. Can always nationalize SpaceX for national security if needed. Musk calls for deorbiting ISS “as soon as possible” - https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-as-possible/ https://spacenews.com/musk-calls-for-deorbiting-iss-as-soon-... - February 20th, 2025
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
ceejayoz 1y ago
They're already selling Dragon flights to private citizens and organizations. They'll keep sending Isaacman up again if he'll pay for it. They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space.
- ben_w 1y ago
  > They might not do the extra stuff NASA wants anymore, but they're currently the only US option to get astronauts to space. Yes, but does Trump care?
- TheAlchemist 1y ago
  SpaceX is dead without NASA and government contracts. Starlink is Tesla all over again - projections of profitability going exponential, only to be met with reality some years later.
  - ceejayoz 1y ago
    SpaceX will get nationalized under the Defense Production Act long before it's allowed to die.
    - TheAlchemist 1y ago
      Yes 100% agree. Just wanted to point out that this is not a normal commercial relationship. NASA / DOD needs SpaceX (for now) and if Musk thinks he can just stop working with / for them and continue his rocket business as usual, he's getting really delusional.
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
    - VOIPThrowaway2 1y ago
      They did it to Iridium when it went bankrupt. DOD basically got it running again with a bunch of money.

insane_dreamer 1y ago

do not underestimate the ego (and resultant stupidity) of either musk or trump

selivanovp 1y ago

Yeah, pretty sure that they'll just nationalize SpaceX to prevent it from happening, but not gonna lie, it'd be funny to see how USA government would have to crawl back to Russia for ISS resupply.

rsynnott 1y ago
They could always ask the ESA to revive https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automated_Transfer_Vehicle , but human access might be more of a problem.
- echoangle 1y ago
  They don’t need ESA for unmanned supplies: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cygnus_(spacecraft)
  - rsynnott 1y ago
    While that exists, it's definitely on the small side. In particular, for reboosting, it's likely inadequate.

jrs235 1y ago

When does Trump nationalize SpaceX?

msgodel 1y ago

I bought DXYZ during the dip from all this. I feel the same way.