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IMO it's largely ignorant talking heads taking "The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite" from popculture / memes and just ran with it, because China bad / should b

IMO it's largely ignorant talking heads taking "The Empire, Long Divided, Must Unite" from popculture / memes and just ran with it, because China bad / should bulkanize, not historic credence. If there was actual historic awareness, this argument would also note significant united cycles of Chinese periods last 250-500 years, after shorter balkanization cycle (50-150 years, eastern zhou shitshow aside). Then the argument would be CCP dynasty is just starting - 70 years into multiple generation spanning 250+ year cycle where they're already cooking, and TBH more geographically and culturally cohesive than any past periods. Or, US is 250 years into cycle, i.e. potentially approaching bulkanization time. But that would defeat / be contrary to the entire is PRC collapsing / bulkanizing meme. It's based on hopium.

soulofmischief 1y ago
This is a biased and narrow take. The reality is that both the US and Chinese empires are threading a needle right now with respect to economics and civil unrest. The Chinese government is bad, and it's already split into China and Taiwan, further erosion of the dynasty is absolutely plausible. There is zero value in pretending everything is hunky dory up until the moment that it all collapses.
- maxglute 1y ago
  There's nothing biased/narrow to note that if one evaluates Chinese history, CCP/modern PRC is experiencing unprecedented domestic serenity and is likely amidst the rising/reunifying era post chaotic Qing interregnum/collapse. Given timeline, and procedurally, ROC/TW isn't indicator of start of balkanization but last piece to reunify now that frontiers like Tibet/XJ has been thoroughly incorporated. Between eminent rise and eminent collapse, it's pretty obvious to me which way PRC comprehensive power is trending towards. There's zero value in pretending just because things are burning in US means things are also similarly burning in degree/scale in PRC. That's cope/projection. Of course eventually "China" can break up again, but the way things has/are trending, there's still a lot of rising to do. Like it would be one thing if PRC was stagnant or relatively declining throughout last 30 years of China collapse narrative (i.e. USSR vs US), and one can argue it's a matter of slowly then suddenly. But most lines are going up, in the opposite direction of collapse, sometimes at absurd slopes, despite best effort of hegemonic US trying to contain. Not everything is hunky dory, but let's not pretend it's threading a needle with collapse. That narrative hasn't/doesn't reconcile with reality and history. And historically, authoritarian Chinese governments can grow very powerful for a very long time. To acknowledge your concern, the state can be strong at the expense of the people, both chinese and outside "barbarians", hegemonically strong. If CCP/PRC is just average performing dynasty, they'll likely still be around and powerful in 100+ years, i.e. all of our life times.

soulofmischief 1y ago

This is a biased and narrow take. The reality is that both the US and Chinese empires are threading a needle right now with respect to economics and civil unrest. The Chinese government is bad, and it's already split into China and Taiwan, further erosion of the dynasty is absolutely plausible. There is zero value in pretending everything is hunky dory up until the moment that it all collapses.

maxglute 1y ago
There's nothing biased/narrow to note that if one evaluates Chinese history, CCP/modern PRC is experiencing unprecedented domestic serenity and is likely amidst the rising/reunifying era post chaotic Qing interregnum/collapse. Given timeline, and procedurally, ROC/TW isn't indicator of start of balkanization but last piece to reunify now that frontiers like Tibet/XJ has been thoroughly incorporated. Between eminent rise and eminent collapse, it's pretty obvious to me which way PRC comprehensive power is trending towards. There's zero value in pretending just because things are burning in US means things are also similarly burning in degree/scale in PRC. That's cope/projection. Of course eventually "China" can break up again, but the way things has/are trending, there's still a lot of rising to do. Like it would be one thing if PRC was stagnant or relatively declining throughout last 30 years of China collapse narrative (i.e. USSR vs US), and one can argue it's a matter of slowly then suddenly. But most lines are going up, in the opposite direction of collapse, sometimes at absurd slopes, despite best effort of hegemonic US trying to contain. Not everything is hunky dory, but let's not pretend it's threading a needle with collapse. That narrative hasn't/doesn't reconcile with reality and history. And historically, authoritarian Chinese governments can grow very powerful for a very long time. To acknowledge your concern, the state can be strong at the expense of the people, both chinese and outside "barbarians", hegemonically strong. If CCP/PRC is just average performing dynasty, they'll likely still be around and powerful in 100+ years, i.e. all of our life times.