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Reading this, I'm struck with a familiar feeling. I wonder if other dem-leaning readers can identify. I remember the old joke about how economists have successf

Reading this, I'm struck with a familiar feeling. I wonder if other dem-leaning readers can identify. I remember the old joke about how economists have successfully predicted five of the last three recessions. Now it's more intense and political. I feel like there's so much doomsaying amongst those who aren't wired to support Trump. Like they/we are successfully predicting 57 of the last 14 emergencies. Here, Krugman points out some real financial data that might be concerning, but then also devotes equal time to the freaking name of the bill, which, come on. Completely irrelevant to understanding what is really going on. And, I know that that is part of the point/strategy, that some of this branding is trolling to distract people. But where is the actual sober analysis that is better able to tell the difference between the 14 emergencies that are real and the 43 that aren't? That's the familiar feeling; just the sense that I don't really know what is going on, and there are fewer and fewer resources that allow me to make sense of it.

jack_h 1y ago
People complaining about the name baffle me; the name of the bill is irrelevant, only the legal effect matters. I’ve been doing a lot of independent research myself since finding useful, non-partisan sources is a huge issue anymore. I’ve found LLMs to be very useful in helping[1] me navigate these areas so I can learn enough to make my own determinations. For what it’s worth my opinion is that this country is in a very bad position that could very well lead to massive world wide economic problems in the future. When and how that manifests is impossible to say; there are a lot of possibilities but I’m expecting the next decade will show us the path we’re on and what that looks like. The tariffs are having an effect (which is to be expected) but it didn’t start there nor does it end there. I think one of the biggest problems we face as a nation is that the citizens do not understand what’s going on and end up parroting what someone else said without really understanding it, usually filling in the gaps of their knowledge from their own world view rather than reality. I don’t mean this as a denigration as most people have families and jobs and do not have enough time to know enough to have well-informed opinions about everything, myself included. However, it is leading to absurdities like screeds about the name of the bill. [1] I don’t trust the LLM of course. I’m not asking it if X is happening or if Y is a problem. More of a way to guide me to finding good primary resources.

jack_h 1y ago

People complaining about the name baffle me; the name of the bill is irrelevant, only the legal effect matters. I’ve been doing a lot of independent research myself since finding useful, non-partisan sources is a huge issue anymore. I’ve found LLMs to be very useful in helping[1] me navigate these areas so I can learn enough to make my own determinations. For what it’s worth my opinion is that this country is in a very bad position that could very well lead to massive world wide economic problems in the future. When and how that manifests is impossible to say; there are a lot of possibilities but I’m expecting the next decade will show us the path we’re on and what that looks like. The tariffs are having an effect (which is to be expected) but it didn’t start there nor does it end there. I think one of the biggest problems we face as a nation is that the citizens do not understand what’s going on and end up parroting what someone else said without really understanding it, usually filling in the gaps of their knowledge from their own world view rather than reality. I don’t mean this as a denigration as most people have families and jobs and do not have enough time to know enough to have well-informed opinions about everything, myself included. However, it is leading to absurdities like screeds about the name of the bill. [1] I don’t trust the LLM of course. I’m not asking it if X is happening or if Y is a problem. More of a way to guide me to finding good primary resources.