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The divergence between interest rates and the dollar is historic and bodes ill for investors and company builders who historically have been able to rely on the
by w10-1 1y ago
The divergence between interest rates and the dollar is historic and bodes ill for investors and company builders who historically have been able to rely on the relative stability of the US.
As a reminder, the Mary Meeker slides on AI reported that the US share of top companies in the public equity market went from ~50% in 1995 to ~85% recently.
Still, the signal from US debt might reflect only changes in a few dominant players (and we famously have adversaries investing in US debt -- Middle East, China, Russia). Also the big beautiful bill shows even Republicans want to spend now and pay later, so this might be unwinding the false expectation of austerity during the Republican trifecta. Both are transitory and neither really goes to seriousness.
The real question is whether we've lost seriousness by continuously moving upstream, into financial and information services and technologies. Our willingness to sell IP/infrastructure now rather than protect and control (milk) it over time reflects a generational lack of diligence. (Sorry - not trying to diminish exit strategies for interim investment tiers.)
- mwenge 1y agoBut this isn't 'buy now, pay later'. This is a tax giveaway to the rich, enabled by future borrowing and savage cuts to public services.
- geoka9 1y ago... and common tax in the form of tariffs.
- tiahura 1y agoThe US economy can do just fine with the 10Y at 5%. And, at today’s level of 4.359, it is lower than when Trump took office in January.
- therobot24 1y agorepublicans wanna spend the way 'they want to' and cut every way the democrats want to spend, and just the opposite is true too (austerity only really matters when it's the other party with the control of the budget) pair this with each district, state, and constitute company/nonprofit/whatever looking for a piece of the pie creates an utter mess of non-stop spending
- Incipient 1y agoWhile the US did have a better image under a democrats president, honestly the overall image and general/technical leadership of the US has been sliding. China has gradually been eroding the position of the US in various markets...now they're just rapidly eroding it under trump haha (ironically/deliberately his position is to curb said erosion).