4 ms·

I don't think the current shareholders care about sales/sales growth right now. They're discounting cash flow from robotaxi/optimus dreams. Whether that makes

I don't think the current shareholders care about sales/sales growth right now. They're discounting cash flow from robotaxi/optimus dreams. Whether that makes sense is pretty subjective. Personally I think they're overly optimistic and that's why I'm not a Tesla shareholder.

solid_fuel 1y ago
Musk already has a LONG history of undelivered promises. Full-self-driving has been "coming next year" for a decade. Now, he seems to be spending his days on ketamine fueled posting binges and fist fights in the white house instead of running Tesla and SpaceX. If I was a tesla investor I would want out immediately.
- disillusioned 1y ago
  The Robotaxi "trial" in Austin has a chance to be supremely embarrassing and potentially ruinous, depending on just how weird it gets. Waymos get stuck doing weird stuff sometimes, which makes the news, but broadly speaking, they've completed 10 million paid, driverless rides, and their accident/injury rate is provably lower than human drivers, and there have been, to my recollection, essentially no catastrophic Waymo-faulted pedestrian interactions (ala the original Uber issues). Owing to the difference in sensor suite, I'm curious if Tesla FSD will be able to truly keep that same margin of safety, but I'm not super confident, and having to pause or rollback the trial would be a big hit in the underlying "value" of TSLA, I reckon.
- lynx97 1y ago
  In other words, cars will be full-self-driving when Linux hits the desktop.
  - AndrewDucker 1y ago
    Waymo have had self-driving taxis for years now.
    - rtkwe 1y ago
      Yes but they have LIDAR which Musk has steadfastly refused to have in Teslas (probably becasue if it does turn out to be required he's in deep shit for all the cars he's sold so far without it they could be forced to upgrade).
    - lynx97 1y ago
      Well, friends of mine use Linux as a desktop since more then 10 years now. So my point is pretty much confirmed. I'll believe the self-driving taxi hype when I am every able to drive own to my place of brith. I am pretty confident that is not going to happen before I die.
throitallaway 1y ago
Still waiting on that coast-to-coast FSD that was supposed to happen in 2017. Elon is a fantastic showman.
CobrastanJorji 1y ago
I think there was also a very sensible "they also run the U.S. government" value, although that seems less true in recent weeks.
- taurath 1y ago
  He got all the contracts and contacts he needs from his time kissing trumps ass while terrorizing charity workers. He was in the Middle East and all over getting signed commitments for starlink. The military will pay him because there are no alternatives. So will many countries. $TSLA isn’t a car company anymore, it’s $ELON and he’s trying to be a trillionaire and be more powerful than heads of state. Gilded age indeed. Fun fact, John D. Rockefeller at his peak of wealth was equivilent to 3% of the GDP of the United States. That 3% figure right now would be $870B.
  - nickthegreek 1y ago
    Musk just tweeted that people need to call their representatives and kill the bill. We see how DOGE treats contracts it doesn’t like. It would be some delicious irony if those new contracts find the way to the shredder.
darth_avocado 1y ago
I’m just waiting for the promised FSD to be delivered before whatever else he’s promised
- ajross 1y ago
  Drove 200 miles on FSD just yesterday. It's been months, maybe more than a year since I've had to intervene with the system for any reason beyond convenience ("I the human am smarter about lane selection so I'll drive" -- even then it's only about 50/50 that I'm actually right). Obviously in the current environment it's not worth having the fight. Musk's brand implosion will be studied for decades as probably the biggest preventable destruction of shareholder value in history. Nonetheless the cars remain great cars, even if it's no longer appropriate to say so. FWIW: used values have dropped too. If you don't want to line DOGE pockets or whatever, you can get a great deal on one from Carvana et. al.
  - sumeno 1y ago
    I don't want more anecdotes from beta testers or massaged numbers from Tesla. I want truly independent verification. For every anecdote about how great it is there's another video showing a Tesla swerve into a tree or turn onto train tracks for no reason
    - ajross 1y ago
      It's very clear that what you don't want is a Tesla, period. And I accept that. The externalities of the current environment are such that this is no longer a winnable fight about cars. But nonetheless they are and remain really great, frankly transformational vehicles and they remain easily accessible if you want to investigate for yourself.
    - modeless 1y ago
      The video of swerving into a tree was caused by the driver turning the wheel and disengaging FSD. It's clear and unambiguous in the crash report data. You should check the news sources you're relying on. What ultimately matters is the statistics, and while the statistics Tesla has released are not very convincing, we can at least be sure that supervised FSD is not dramatically more dangerous than human drivers. That would definitely have been obvious in the statistics by now.
more_corn 1y ago
Robotaxi will flop. The only saving grace would be a merger with Xai which would be batshit but it’s just the sort of batshit that he specializes in.
- throitallaway 1y ago
  Xai has acquired X, so why not also acquire Tesla? That would give him what he wants (full control of Tesla.) The shell game continues.
neepi 1y ago
Correct. They don't. They're throwing cash in because they're running on faith and marketing. There's a lot of TSLA promotional noise from influencers (Lutnick included) to buy buy buy. This is of course because the institutional investors are getting out and want you to buy so they don't make the loss when it collapses. The whole market is totally insane at the market, inflated on promises not delivery. There's only one way it's going.
- msgodel 1y ago
  This kind of thing goes in the same bucket (at least in my mind) as the traders who think UHC and PLTR are part of some great deep state conspiracy. Those things do happen from time to time but especially when they become popular they create an opportunity for counter elites to disrupt you. Competent leaders seem to (I'd argue appropriately) consider these a liability more than an asset. I think the market is going to be neutral on them for that reason. I also think conspiracies are much more rare than people like to think. A lot of them turn out to just be similar people thinking the same thing.

solid_fuel 1y ago

Musk already has a LONG history of undelivered promises. Full-self-driving has been "coming next year" for a decade. Now, he seems to be spending his days on ketamine fueled posting binges and fist fights in the white house instead of running Tesla and SpaceX. If I was a tesla investor I would want out immediately.

disillusioned 1y ago
The Robotaxi "trial" in Austin has a chance to be supremely embarrassing and potentially ruinous, depending on just how weird it gets. Waymos get stuck doing weird stuff sometimes, which makes the news, but broadly speaking, they've completed 10 million paid, driverless rides, and their accident/injury rate is provably lower than human drivers, and there have been, to my recollection, essentially no catastrophic Waymo-faulted pedestrian interactions (ala the original Uber issues). Owing to the difference in sensor suite, I'm curious if Tesla FSD will be able to truly keep that same margin of safety, but I'm not super confident, and having to pause or rollback the trial would be a big hit in the underlying "value" of TSLA, I reckon.
lynx97 1y ago
In other words, cars will be full-self-driving when Linux hits the desktop.
- AndrewDucker 1y ago
  Waymo have had self-driving taxis for years now.
  - rtkwe 1y ago
    Yes but they have LIDAR which Musk has steadfastly refused to have in Teslas (probably becasue if it does turn out to be required he's in deep shit for all the cars he's sold so far without it they could be forced to upgrade).
  - lynx97 1y ago
    Well, friends of mine use Linux as a desktop since more then 10 years now. So my point is pretty much confirmed. I'll believe the self-driving taxi hype when I am every able to drive own to my place of brith. I am pretty confident that is not going to happen before I die.

throitallaway 1y ago

Still waiting on that coast-to-coast FSD that was supposed to happen in 2017. Elon is a fantastic showman.

CobrastanJorji 1y ago

I think there was also a very sensible "they also run the U.S. government" value, although that seems less true in recent weeks.

taurath 1y ago
He got all the contracts and contacts he needs from his time kissing trumps ass while terrorizing charity workers. He was in the Middle East and all over getting signed commitments for starlink. The military will pay him because there are no alternatives. So will many countries. $TSLA isn’t a car company anymore, it’s $ELON and he’s trying to be a trillionaire and be more powerful than heads of state. Gilded age indeed. Fun fact, John D. Rockefeller at his peak of wealth was equivilent to 3% of the GDP of the United States. That 3% figure right now would be $870B.
- nickthegreek 1y ago
  Musk just tweeted that people need to call their representatives and kill the bill. We see how DOGE treats contracts it doesn’t like. It would be some delicious irony if those new contracts find the way to the shredder.

darth_avocado 1y ago

I’m just waiting for the promised FSD to be delivered before whatever else he’s promised

ajross 1y ago
Drove 200 miles on FSD just yesterday. It's been months, maybe more than a year since I've had to intervene with the system for any reason beyond convenience ("I the human am smarter about lane selection so I'll drive" -- even then it's only about 50/50 that I'm actually right). Obviously in the current environment it's not worth having the fight. Musk's brand implosion will be studied for decades as probably the biggest preventable destruction of shareholder value in history. Nonetheless the cars remain great cars, even if it's no longer appropriate to say so. FWIW: used values have dropped too. If you don't want to line DOGE pockets or whatever, you can get a great deal on one from Carvana et. al.
- sumeno 1y ago
  I don't want more anecdotes from beta testers or massaged numbers from Tesla. I want truly independent verification. For every anecdote about how great it is there's another video showing a Tesla swerve into a tree or turn onto train tracks for no reason
  - ajross 1y ago
    It's very clear that what you don't want is a Tesla, period. And I accept that. The externalities of the current environment are such that this is no longer a winnable fight about cars. But nonetheless they are and remain really great, frankly transformational vehicles and they remain easily accessible if you want to investigate for yourself.
  - modeless 1y ago
    The video of swerving into a tree was caused by the driver turning the wheel and disengaging FSD. It's clear and unambiguous in the crash report data. You should check the news sources you're relying on. What ultimately matters is the statistics, and while the statistics Tesla has released are not very convincing, we can at least be sure that supervised FSD is not dramatically more dangerous than human drivers. That would definitely have been obvious in the statistics by now.

more_corn 1y ago

Robotaxi will flop. The only saving grace would be a merger with Xai which would be batshit but it’s just the sort of batshit that he specializes in.

throitallaway 1y ago
Xai has acquired X, so why not also acquire Tesla? That would give him what he wants (full control of Tesla.) The shell game continues.

neepi 1y ago

Correct. They don't. They're throwing cash in because they're running on faith and marketing. There's a lot of TSLA promotional noise from influencers (Lutnick included) to buy buy buy. This is of course because the institutional investors are getting out and want you to buy so they don't make the loss when it collapses. The whole market is totally insane at the market, inflated on promises not delivery. There's only one way it's going.

msgodel 1y ago
This kind of thing goes in the same bucket (at least in my mind) as the traders who think UHC and PLTR are part of some great deep state conspiracy. Those things do happen from time to time but especially when they become popular they create an opportunity for counter elites to disrupt you. Competent leaders seem to (I'd argue appropriately) consider these a liability more than an asset. I think the market is going to be neutral on them for that reason. I also think conspiracies are much more rare than people like to think. A lot of them turn out to just be similar people thinking the same thing.