Markets aren't perfectly information-efficient. They're just _very_ information-efficient. So there's at least some room for non-luck-based strategies to outper

Markets aren't perfectly information-efficient. They're just _very_ information-efficient. So there's at least some room for non-luck-based strategies to outperform the market. More important than information efficiency, is the subjective nature of investments, and the inter-sectoral complexity of the modern economy. There's lots of meaningful calculations you can do to predict the longterm value of a company, but massive and mostly unseen shifts in expectations happen regularly. A fairly small number of people in Feb 2020 saw that 1/3 of students globally were suddenly home-schooled, and connected the dots to turn that into an ultra-strong signal to invest in Moderna. Similarly, lots of people saw that Nvidia's CUDA granted it a near absolute-monopoly over anything that requires matrix multiplication. They were able to connect the dots to turn that into an ultra-strong signal that NVDA would turn from a relatively obscure company into a significant company. Domain specialists have an edge over the aggregate-market within their narrow field of interest.