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> So, IMHO the only hope for EU to have non-niche providers would be the complete deterioration of US-EU relations. I think you underestimate the deterioration

> So, IMHO the only hope for EU to have non-niche providers would be the complete deterioration of US-EU relations. I think you underestimate the deterioration that's already occurred. These conversations are already happening. It will take a decade at least, but it's already begun.

mrtksn 1y ago
I'm aware of the state but it's not bad enough. It will be bad enough only when access to US services is just as restricted as in Russia and China. Currently there aren't any restrictions, the political class is worried and people don't feel good about the maker of the products but that's it. Why would anybody invest in European mass appeal e-mail provider when things can just improve if Trump changes his pills? As a result in Europe you can't have a Gmail but instead you get Proton Mail. This is cool but its a niche product. The same goes for everything, EU does have some great niche tech and some content studios but the platforms are always US based. I.e. one of the hottest games at this moment(clair obscur expedition 33) in the world is French made but it is primarily published on US platforms. On Twitter you can find Euro tech boi's who will be repeating the same libertarian ideas as the US tech bros but the EU people make about as much as a successful restaurant and the US tech bros make often as much as a global restaurant chain or more. Europe, or any place will be stuck with niche small businesses as long as US has access to their markets. Trump for some reason tries hard to change that but he hasn't succeeded yet but on the other hand he just started... So maybe in a few years it can happen after some huge scandal that justifies drastic changes. For example, it can be something like coordinated attack on Europeans by US tech giants and Russia etc. Musk with his actions in Ukraine propelled British and French satellite providers for example.
- closewith 1y ago
  > Currently there aren't any restrictions, the political class is worried and people don't feel good about the maker of the products but that's it. There very clearly is the restriction, upheld by courts again and again, that EU personal data cannot be processed on US clouds, including EU-based but US-owned clouds thanks to the US CLOUD ACT. The political class and EU governments as a whole have kicked this can down the road several times, first with Safe Harbor, then Privacy Shield, and now the EU–US Data Privacy Framework which will inevitably fall. > Europe, or any place will be stuck with niche small businesses as long as US has access to their markets. This is just, well, untrue. Despite the oft-repeated claims to the contrary, the EU is an industrial and technological powerhouse. What it doesn't have are US oligopolies, which are currently destroying the fabric of US society while being enormously profitable. That's a feature of the EU, not a bug. > On Twitter you can find Euro tech boi's who will be repeating the same libertarian ideas as the US tech bros but the EU people make about as much as a successful restaurant and the US tech bros make often as much as a global restaurant chain or more. Wealth inequality is a failure of US society, not a goal.
  - mytailorisrich 1y ago
    > here very clearly is the restriction, upheld by courts again and again, that EU personal data cannot be processed on US clouds, including EU-based but US-owned clouds thanks to the US CLOUD ACT. Have they? As far as I am aware there's been a lot of handwaving and possibly FUD but nothing more.
    - closewith 1y ago
      Then you're not paying attention, as there is concrete precedence, in particular Schrems 2.
      - mytailorisrich 1y ago
        Schrems 2 does not do what you claim: the EU-US Privacy Shield is about sending EU data to the US, not about US companies keeping data in the EU. So I still don't know what "precedent" there might be. Surely if your claim was factual, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, etc would have ceased business in the EU...
        closewith 1y ago
        You should read Schrems 2, specifically paragraphs 179 onwards, which set the now unchallenged precedent that data which remains in the EU but is subject to US legislation that allows access by US public authorities constitutes a transfer. > Surely if your claim was factual, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, etc would have ceased business in the EU... The legal cover is now the EU–US Data Privacy Framework, which allows these transfers subject to self certification. This is already under challenge and inevitably will fall judicial review in the next few years. Once all the delaying tactics have been dealt with, we'll be left with the inevitable conclusion. Data transfers to the US or US controlled companies are unlawful as long as the CLOUD Act and similar are in force. It's simply unreconcilable with the ECHR Right To Privacy and GDPR.
        mytailorisrich 1y ago
StefanBatory 1y ago
But EU might pull apart itself first. We in Poland just elected a very pro-America, anti-EU president. By like 51 - 49, so very close, but still...

mrtksn 1y ago

I'm aware of the state but it's not bad enough. It will be bad enough only when access to US services is just as restricted as in Russia and China. Currently there aren't any restrictions, the political class is worried and people don't feel good about the maker of the products but that's it. Why would anybody invest in European mass appeal e-mail provider when things can just improve if Trump changes his pills? As a result in Europe you can't have a Gmail but instead you get Proton Mail. This is cool but its a niche product. The same goes for everything, EU does have some great niche tech and some content studios but the platforms are always US based. I.e. one of the hottest games at this moment(clair obscur expedition 33) in the world is French made but it is primarily published on US platforms. On Twitter you can find Euro tech boi's who will be repeating the same libertarian ideas as the US tech bros but the EU people make about as much as a successful restaurant and the US tech bros make often as much as a global restaurant chain or more. Europe, or any place will be stuck with niche small businesses as long as US has access to their markets. Trump for some reason tries hard to change that but he hasn't succeeded yet but on the other hand he just started... So maybe in a few years it can happen after some huge scandal that justifies drastic changes. For example, it can be something like coordinated attack on Europeans by US tech giants and Russia etc. Musk with his actions in Ukraine propelled British and French satellite providers for example.

closewith 1y ago
> Currently there aren't any restrictions, the political class is worried and people don't feel good about the maker of the products but that's it. There very clearly is the restriction, upheld by courts again and again, that EU personal data cannot be processed on US clouds, including EU-based but US-owned clouds thanks to the US CLOUD ACT. The political class and EU governments as a whole have kicked this can down the road several times, first with Safe Harbor, then Privacy Shield, and now the EU–US Data Privacy Framework which will inevitably fall. > Europe, or any place will be stuck with niche small businesses as long as US has access to their markets. This is just, well, untrue. Despite the oft-repeated claims to the contrary, the EU is an industrial and technological powerhouse. What it doesn't have are US oligopolies, which are currently destroying the fabric of US society while being enormously profitable. That's a feature of the EU, not a bug. > On Twitter you can find Euro tech boi's who will be repeating the same libertarian ideas as the US tech bros but the EU people make about as much as a successful restaurant and the US tech bros make often as much as a global restaurant chain or more. Wealth inequality is a failure of US society, not a goal.
- mytailorisrich 1y ago
  > here very clearly is the restriction, upheld by courts again and again, that EU personal data cannot be processed on US clouds, including EU-based but US-owned clouds thanks to the US CLOUD ACT. Have they? As far as I am aware there's been a lot of handwaving and possibly FUD but nothing more.
  - closewith 1y ago
    Then you're not paying attention, as there is concrete precedence, in particular Schrems 2.
    - mytailorisrich 1y ago
      Schrems 2 does not do what you claim: the EU-US Privacy Shield is about sending EU data to the US, not about US companies keeping data in the EU. So I still don't know what "precedent" there might be. Surely if your claim was factual, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, etc would have ceased business in the EU...
      - closewith 1y ago
        You should read Schrems 2, specifically paragraphs 179 onwards, which set the now unchallenged precedent that data which remains in the EU but is subject to US legislation that allows access by US public authorities constitutes a transfer. > Surely if your claim was factual, AWS, Azure, Google Cloud, etc would have ceased business in the EU... The legal cover is now the EU–US Data Privacy Framework, which allows these transfers subject to self certification. This is already under challenge and inevitably will fall judicial review in the next few years. Once all the delaying tactics have been dealt with, we'll be left with the inevitable conclusion. Data transfers to the US or US controlled companies are unlawful as long as the CLOUD Act and similar are in force. It's simply unreconcilable with the ECHR Right To Privacy and GDPR.
        mytailorisrich 1y ago

StefanBatory 1y ago

But EU might pull apart itself first. We in Poland just elected a very pro-America, anti-EU president. By like 51 - 49, so very close, but still...