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> How does increasing the productivity of software engineers benefit anyone but employers? The same reason a tractor benefits society, not just the farmer. Lab

> How does increasing the productivity of software engineers benefit anyone but employers? The same reason a tractor benefits society, not just the farmer. Labor is free'd up for other uses, like inventing computers.

bgwalter 1y ago
The tractor analogy is ancient and the economic system is entirely different. Who is going to pay laid off software engineers to spend time on inventing anything? Fortunately, "AI" decreases productivity in software engineering, so this question is academic. But the Atlantic should mention these issues.
- pas 1y ago
  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skill-biased_technological_change https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skill-biased_technological_c...
- simonw 1y ago
  > Fortunately, "AI" decreases productivity in software engineering Citation needed.
  - bgwalter 1y ago
    My own experiences, just like you state your personal experiences on your blog, which (unfortunately) other entities like the NYT cite.
  - Joker_vD 1y ago
    Today, a software engineer's time is split between writing code and reviewing code. There is only so much code a software engineer can meaningfully review in a day, without going numb and starting to skip mistakes. Taking away the "writing code" part does not increase the amount of time they can spend on reviewing the code: it's hard-bound by their human nature. So if your software engineers were already operating at the optimal level of writing/reviewing split — then they were limited by their ability to review code, not to write it. So they will stay at this frontier even if you make AI write the code.
    - simonw 1y ago
      I have found plenty of other ways to improve my productivity as a software engineer without having LLMs write a single line of production code: - Understanding code: I can dump thousands of lines of undocumented code into a large context model and get back architectural outlines, API usage examples or even full documentation. I can also ask questions directly of the codebase. - Debugging. The newer reasoning models are extremely good at deciphering a test failure or stack trace and pinpointing the potential causes of the bug, sending me right to the relevant code. - Suggesting where to make edits. I've started asking models for a high level implementation plan based on the codebase and dumping in an issue thread - they frequently spot parts of the code I forgot I would need to update. - "What should I test?" - dump in a diff and get back a checklist of branches I need to add test coverage for At this point, if you can't find ways to make yourself more productive as a programmer with LLMs I have to conclude that you just aren't trying very hard.
- fallingknife 1y ago
  If you can invent, build, operate, or fix useful things, there will always be someone willing to pay you.
  - WalterBright 1y ago
    Debugging a car is very similar to debugging code.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  > Who is going to pay laid off software engineers to spend time on inventing anything? Over my career, I've known many software engineers who were laid off. The ones I kept track of: 1. got another job, sometimes in another field 2. started their own business 3. retired 4. became a consultant
neepi 1y ago
Not everything is a tractor. Sometimes it’s a gun or a Pinto.
micromacrofoot 1y ago
just don't look at how farming in america is going when this extends too far though
- mdaniel 1y ago
  DDG: john deere drm
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
lmm 1y ago
That worked back when employers actually had to compete for labour, or unions were strong enough to negotiate with them on equal terms. Now productivity gains go entirely to the holders of capital.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  Proof that employers compete for labor lies in every job where the pay exceeds minimum wage.
  - TFYS 1y ago
    They compete, but the level of competition has gone down and the share of income labor gets has decreased as a result.
    - WalterBright 1y ago
      > the share of income labor gets has decreased as a result. Does it? ROI stays generally about the same. The reason is simple: highly profitable businesses attract competition, causing their prices to fall.
      - TFYS 1y ago
        It does, at least according to the statistics and research we have. Labor share of income has been decreasing during the last few decades. The reason is also simple: without strong interference from governments, markets have a tendency to concentrate and form monopolies. Winners are rewarded with more advantages over their competitors, and over time one or two winners will emerge and get large enough that it's near impossible to compete with them, even if the competitors can resist the urge to get rich quick by selling the business to the dominant players. Capital also has a much easier time organizing politically than the poor masses, so over time the government will also introduce policies that benefit capital over labor, as we can very clearly see.
3rdDeviation 1y ago
I think that's a misplaced analogy. The farmer owns the farm and benefits directly from the improvement in operating margins. A software engineer does not own the farm, only the owner would benefit from improved productivity. They're actually getting paid less per hour given they're more productive in this hypothetical.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- db48x 1y ago
  Except that many software engineers _do_ own the farm. A large percentage work in startups where equity is a big part of the pay.
  - dmd 1y ago
    Now there's the HN bubble for you. I would be shocked if more than a tenth of a percent of people who write code for a living work in startups, period.
- fallingknife 1y ago
  Only a small minority of farm workers owned the farms they worked on even back before tractors. And the tractors didn't do much to help most of those owners either. Industrial farm equipment increased the area a single farmer can work so far beyond what he could before that it made no sense for owners of the time to each have their own equipment and most sold their land and consolidated the industry into much larger farms. Farm employment went from 90% of all workers before the industrial revolution down to a bit over 1% today in the US. And maybe it happens to software engineers next. So what? The economy looks completely different today than it did 50 years ago, which was completely different than 50 years before that, and that shouldn't stop just because some people feel childishly entitled to do the same work for their whole lives even it if it is obsolete. I'll just change careers like I have done twice before. There's a massive shortage of electrical/plumbing/hvac contractors. There's a massive shortage of nurses / doctors that will only get worse as the population gets older. Not as cushy as my mid six figure tech job, but I have no god given right to that. And there's plenty more opportunity beyond that for anyone willing to take it, so if any other engineers want to cry about it, their tears will be wasted on me.

bgwalter 1y ago

The tractor analogy is ancient and the economic system is entirely different. Who is going to pay laid off software engineers to spend time on inventing anything? Fortunately, "AI" decreases productivity in software engineering, so this question is academic. But the Atlantic should mention these issues.

pas 1y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skill-biased_technological_change https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skill-biased_technological_c...
simonw 1y ago
> Fortunately, "AI" decreases productivity in software engineering Citation needed.
- bgwalter 1y ago
  My own experiences, just like you state your personal experiences on your blog, which (unfortunately) other entities like the NYT cite.
- Joker_vD 1y ago
  Today, a software engineer's time is split between writing code and reviewing code. There is only so much code a software engineer can meaningfully review in a day, without going numb and starting to skip mistakes. Taking away the "writing code" part does not increase the amount of time they can spend on reviewing the code: it's hard-bound by their human nature. So if your software engineers were already operating at the optimal level of writing/reviewing split — then they were limited by their ability to review code, not to write it. So they will stay at this frontier even if you make AI write the code.
  - simonw 1y ago
    I have found plenty of other ways to improve my productivity as a software engineer without having LLMs write a single line of production code: - Understanding code: I can dump thousands of lines of undocumented code into a large context model and get back architectural outlines, API usage examples or even full documentation. I can also ask questions directly of the codebase. - Debugging. The newer reasoning models are extremely good at deciphering a test failure or stack trace and pinpointing the potential causes of the bug, sending me right to the relevant code. - Suggesting where to make edits. I've started asking models for a high level implementation plan based on the codebase and dumping in an issue thread - they frequently spot parts of the code I forgot I would need to update. - "What should I test?" - dump in a diff and get back a checklist of branches I need to add test coverage for At this point, if you can't find ways to make yourself more productive as a programmer with LLMs I have to conclude that you just aren't trying very hard.
fallingknife 1y ago
If you can invent, build, operate, or fix useful things, there will always be someone willing to pay you.
- WalterBright 1y ago
  Debugging a car is very similar to debugging code.
WalterBright 1y ago
> Who is going to pay laid off software engineers to spend time on inventing anything? Over my career, I've known many software engineers who were laid off. The ones I kept track of: 1. got another job, sometimes in another field 2. started their own business 3. retired 4. became a consultant

neepi 1y ago

Not everything is a tractor. Sometimes it’s a gun or a Pinto.

micromacrofoot 1y ago

just don't look at how farming in america is going when this extends too far though

mdaniel 1y ago
DDG: john deere drm

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

lmm 1y ago

That worked back when employers actually had to compete for labour, or unions were strong enough to negotiate with them on equal terms. Now productivity gains go entirely to the holders of capital.

WalterBright 1y ago
Proof that employers compete for labor lies in every job where the pay exceeds minimum wage.
- TFYS 1y ago
  They compete, but the level of competition has gone down and the share of income labor gets has decreased as a result.
  - WalterBright 1y ago
    > the share of income labor gets has decreased as a result. Does it? ROI stays generally about the same. The reason is simple: highly profitable businesses attract competition, causing their prices to fall.
    - TFYS 1y ago
      It does, at least according to the statistics and research we have. Labor share of income has been decreasing during the last few decades. The reason is also simple: without strong interference from governments, markets have a tendency to concentrate and form monopolies. Winners are rewarded with more advantages over their competitors, and over time one or two winners will emerge and get large enough that it's near impossible to compete with them, even if the competitors can resist the urge to get rich quick by selling the business to the dominant players. Capital also has a much easier time organizing politically than the poor masses, so over time the government will also introduce policies that benefit capital over labor, as we can very clearly see.

3rdDeviation 1y ago

I think that's a misplaced analogy. The farmer owns the farm and benefits directly from the improvement in operating margins. A software engineer does not own the farm, only the owner would benefit from improved productivity. They're actually getting paid less per hour given they're more productive in this hypothetical.

deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
db48x 1y ago
Except that many software engineers _do_ own the farm. A large percentage work in startups where equity is a big part of the pay.
- dmd 1y ago
  Now there's the HN bubble for you. I would be shocked if more than a tenth of a percent of people who write code for a living work in startups, period.
fallingknife 1y ago
Only a small minority of farm workers owned the farms they worked on even back before tractors. And the tractors didn't do much to help most of those owners either. Industrial farm equipment increased the area a single farmer can work so far beyond what he could before that it made no sense for owners of the time to each have their own equipment and most sold their land and consolidated the industry into much larger farms. Farm employment went from 90% of all workers before the industrial revolution down to a bit over 1% today in the US. And maybe it happens to software engineers next. So what? The economy looks completely different today than it did 50 years ago, which was completely different than 50 years before that, and that shouldn't stop just because some people feel childishly entitled to do the same work for their whole lives even it if it is obsolete. I'll just change careers like I have done twice before. There's a massive shortage of electrical/plumbing/hvac contractors. There's a massive shortage of nurses / doctors that will only get worse as the population gets older. Not as cushy as my mid six figure tech job, but I have no god given right to that. And there's plenty more opportunity beyond that for anyone willing to take it, so if any other engineers want to cry about it, their tears will be wasted on me.