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> We're getting so much more productivity out of IC engineers that I would expect to see layoffs More software engineer productivity may mean fewer jobs at a f

> We're getting so much more productivity out of IC engineers that I would expect to see layoffs More software engineer productivity may mean fewer jobs at a firm with a fixed niche, but it means more applications where software engineering time can be productively deployed and greater number of software engineering jobs in aggregate. General economic downturn kills jobs that are about immediate returns and higher interest rates make it less attractive to burn software engineering hours on long-payoff efforts. So, some specific jobs at specific firms may be lost to AI, but aggregate job losses are more likely to be a result of economic and financial market conditions.

UncleEntity 1y ago
In principle I agree with you but I also think this is a productivity shift which has no historical parallels. All previous 'efficiency gains' were in physical manufacturing. Though, one could argue, the invention of the printing press was different as it allowed the more efficient distribution of knowledge. Same with the (general availability) of the internet. Now what we're seeing is the early days of more efficient application of knowledge well beyond what any single human could achieve. Someone inventing a pin making machine freed up hundreds of thousands of people for different tasks allowing for the more efficient application of labor. Someone inventing a machine which does the mental work of hundreds of thousands of people on a single GPU will most likely follow a different trajectory.
- dragonwriter 1y ago
  > All previous 'efficiency gains' were in physical manufacturing. No, they weren't. Like, the whole information age is full of efficiency gains in knowledge work on a fairly high cadence (sure, there have also been gains in physical manufacturing, but those have hardly been the exclusive locus of such gains.)

UncleEntity 1y ago

In principle I agree with you but I also think this is a productivity shift which has no historical parallels. All previous 'efficiency gains' were in physical manufacturing. Though, one could argue, the invention of the printing press was different as it allowed the more efficient distribution of knowledge. Same with the (general availability) of the internet. Now what we're seeing is the early days of more efficient application of knowledge well beyond what any single human could achieve. Someone inventing a pin making machine freed up hundreds of thousands of people for different tasks allowing for the more efficient application of labor. Someone inventing a machine which does the mental work of hundreds of thousands of people on a single GPU will most likely follow a different trajectory.

dragonwriter 1y ago
> All previous 'efficiency gains' were in physical manufacturing. No, they weren't. Like, the whole information age is full of efficiency gains in knowledge work on a fairly high cadence (sure, there have also been gains in physical manufacturing, but those have hardly been the exclusive locus of such gains.)