4 ms·
If 99.9% fail and you see one that didn't, then would it be surprising that it didn't? No! It's not 100%, so there must be some example. For that one it's not s
by yusina 1y ago
If 99.9% fail and you see one that didn't, then would it be surprising that it didn't? No! It's not 100%, so there must be some example. For that one it's not surprising.
More precisely, it's not surprising that one exists. It may be surprising that this particular one survived, just as it wouldbe surprising that it's my neighbor who wins the lottery next week. But it's likely that somebody will, so if somebody has won, it won't be a surprise that somebody did.
- skybrian 1y agoYes, it seems like surprise has to depend on your point of view. There’s an enormous difference between “someone somewhere won the lottery” and “I won the lottery,” even if it’s describing the same event. It’s a question of how many other possibilities are considered similar to the one that happened. From a zoomed-out perspective, one win is as good as any another.