People sometimes talk about this as “taking the outside view” or “reference class forecasting.” [1] It doesn’t work when there are important differences between

People sometimes talk about this as “taking the outside view” or “reference class forecasting.” [1] It doesn’t work when there are important differences between the case being considered and other members of the reference class. Nationwide statistics are especially zoomed-out and there are going to be a lot of people in the same country who are quite different from you. Worldwide statistics are even worse. It doesn’t mean the statistics are wrong, though. If there is a 70% chance of failure, there’s also a 30% chance of success. But it’s subjective: use a different reference class and you’ll get a different number. The opposite problem is also common: assuming that “this time it’s different” without considering the reasons why others have failed. The general issue is overconfidence and failure to consider alternative scenarios. The future isn’t known to us and it’s easy to fool yourself into thinking it is known. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting