5 ms·

That's about to get repealed it looks like.

by jki275 1y ago

latchkey 1y ago
TACO
- immibis 1y ago
  For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs. Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it The point is he’s powerless not to. The alternative is allowing a bond rout to trigger a bank collapse, probably in rural America. He didn’t do the prep that produces actual leverage. (Xi did.)
    - lazide 1y ago
      Never assume a narcissist will take the sane way out when their game blows up in their face.
    - harmmonica 1y ago
      Can you expand on "probably in rural America"? Do you just mean that those smaller community banks are more at risk if rates rise? If so, because they issue more variable rate debt? Or is there something else? edit: grammar
      - deleted 1y ago
        [deleted]
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > Do you just mean that those smaller community banks are more at risk if rates rise? If so, because they issue more variable rate debt? Or is there something else? Current issue is community banks have 3x the commercial real estate exposure of other banks [1]. They're also less liquid and have a lower ROA. So in cases where the shock comes from outside the financial sector, they tend to be the first we worry about. [1] https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile 33% vs 11% of total assets
    - alfiedotwtf 1y ago
      This was the most interesting thing I found during the past few weeks - even “The US President is the most powerful man in the world” can’t win a war against the bond market.
      - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
        > even “The US President is the most powerful man in the world” can’t win a war against the bond market "You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics" (D. D. Eisenhower). Trump did zero preparation for this trade war. It's still unclear what the ends are, with opposing and contradictory aims being messaged. We launched the war simultaneously against everyone. The formula used to calculate tariffs doesn't make sense. And Trump decided to blow out the deficit and kneecap U.S. state capacity at the same time he's negotiating against himself on trade. The U.S. President can take on the bond market. Most simply by taking the budget into surplus, thereby threatening its existence. But Trump didn't do that. He didn't even pretend he was going to do that. Instead, he's strategically put himself in a position where he has to chicken out, and it honestly seems like he's surrounded himself with people who are too high, drunk and/or stupid to see that. He's the poker player who shows up at the table, goes all in, looks at his cards and folds in one move.
        immibis 1y ago
        There's no end - it's just Trump following his learned or innate behaviour. Same behaviour that bankrupted every institution he's ever been in charge of before. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting different results. It's possible he'll stop chickening out to win his internal argument against that reporter who said he always chickens out. Feeling like he's winning seems to be important to him and he holds grudges for a long time. In that case the American economy goes bye bye. We already know he wants to end the dollar reserve currency status, because he said so - trade deficit and reserve currency status are different words for the same thing.
        fuzzfactor 1y ago
  - darepublic 1y ago
    Don't look a gift taco in the mouth
    - esaym 1y ago
      This
  - latchkey 1y ago
    And the reason why I said it is because 174 is part of Trump's Cut^3 bill from 2017. DOE 174.
  - wonderwonder 1y ago
    yeah, I thought the same thing. Steel tariff announcement is the first real test. Announcing the US Steel merger? / purchase? at the same time I think is part of the plan. I think he is going to stick this one out to prove them wrong. Would be interesting to see if TACO is even real, I could see someone on wall street opening a ton of puts, making the story up and then leaking the fake story to the reporter. Mission accomplished.

That's about to get repealed it looks like.

by jki275 1y ago

That's about to get repealed it looks like.

latchkey 1y ago

TACO

immibis 1y ago
For those unaware, the "TACO trade" is when Wall Street investors trade based on the principle that "Trump Always Chickens Out". For example, buying in a tariff-induced dip on the principle that he'll probably repeal the tariffs. Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Now that someone's said to Trump's face that Wall Street thinks he always chickens out, he may or may not stop doing it The point is he’s powerless not to. The alternative is allowing a bond rout to trigger a bank collapse, probably in rural America. He didn’t do the prep that produces actual leverage. (Xi did.)
  - lazide 1y ago
    Never assume a narcissist will take the sane way out when their game blows up in their face.
  - harmmonica 1y ago
    Can you expand on "probably in rural America"? Do you just mean that those smaller community banks are more at risk if rates rise? If so, because they issue more variable rate debt? Or is there something else? edit: grammar
    - deleted 1y ago
      [deleted]
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > Do you just mean that those smaller community banks are more at risk if rates rise? If so, because they issue more variable rate debt? Or is there something else? Current issue is community banks have 3x the commercial real estate exposure of other banks [1]. They're also less liquid and have a lower ROA. So in cases where the shock comes from outside the financial sector, they tend to be the first we worry about. [1] https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile 33% vs 11% of total assets
  - alfiedotwtf 1y ago
    This was the most interesting thing I found during the past few weeks - even “The US President is the most powerful man in the world” can’t win a war against the bond market.
    - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
      > even “The US President is the most powerful man in the world” can’t win a war against the bond market "You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics" (D. D. Eisenhower). Trump did zero preparation for this trade war. It's still unclear what the ends are, with opposing and contradictory aims being messaged. We launched the war simultaneously against everyone. The formula used to calculate tariffs doesn't make sense. And Trump decided to blow out the deficit and kneecap U.S. state capacity at the same time he's negotiating against himself on trade. The U.S. President can take on the bond market. Most simply by taking the budget into surplus, thereby threatening its existence. But Trump didn't do that. He didn't even pretend he was going to do that. Instead, he's strategically put himself in a position where he has to chicken out, and it honestly seems like he's surrounded himself with people who are too high, drunk and/or stupid to see that. He's the poker player who shows up at the table, goes all in, looks at his cards and folds in one move.
      - immibis 1y ago
        There's no end - it's just Trump following his learned or innate behaviour. Same behaviour that bankrupted every institution he's ever been in charge of before. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting different results. It's possible he'll stop chickening out to win his internal argument against that reporter who said he always chickens out. Feeling like he's winning seems to be important to him and he holds grudges for a long time. In that case the American economy goes bye bye. We already know he wants to end the dollar reserve currency status, because he said so - trade deficit and reserve currency status are different words for the same thing.
        fuzzfactor 1y ago
- darepublic 1y ago
  Don't look a gift taco in the mouth
  - esaym 1y ago
    This
- latchkey 1y ago
  And the reason why I said it is because 174 is part of Trump's Cut^3 bill from 2017. DOE 174.
- wonderwonder 1y ago
  yeah, I thought the same thing. Steel tariff announcement is the first real test. Announcing the US Steel merger? / purchase? at the same time I think is part of the plan. I think he is going to stick this one out to prove them wrong. Would be interesting to see if TACO is even real, I could see someone on wall street opening a ton of puts, making the story up and then leaking the fake story to the reporter. Mission accomplished.