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It's the unfounded promises that this will be solved because the tech will only get better that really upset me. Because sure, it will get better, I'm pretty ce
by DanHulton 1y ago
It's the unfounded promises that this will be solved because the tech will only get better that really upset me. Because sure, it will get better, I'm pretty certain of that. They'll have additional capabilities, they'll have access to more-recent data, etc. But "better" does not necessarily equate to "will fix the lying problem." That's a problem that is BAKED INTO the technology, and requires some kind of different approach to solve -- you can't just keep making a hammer bigger and bigger in the hopes that one day it'll turn into a screwdriver.
Before LLMs really took off, we were in the middle of an "AI winter", where there just weren't any promising techs, at least none with sufficient funding attached to them. And it's WORSE now. LLMs have sucked all the air out of the room, and all of the funding out of other avenues of research. Technologies that were "10-20" years away now might be 30-40, because there's fewer people researching them, with less money, and they might even be completely different people trying to restart the research after the old ones got recruited away to work on LLMs!
- mountainriver 1y agoI really don’t understand the whole AI winter talk all the time. We haven’t had anything of the sort since 2008. There were tons of major RL advancements before ChatGPT that were stunning. I would challenge anyone to find data to actually support any of these claims. ML spending has been up since deep learning year over year and the models just keep getting better