5 ms·

Yes, that's quite easy. I say "Hey reorganize the tasks like-so, prioritize this, like so", and if I really need to, I can go ahead and hook up some function ca

by ivape 1y ago

Yes, that's quite easy. I say "Hey reorganize the tasks like-so, prioritize this, like so", and if I really need to, I can go ahead and hook up some function calls but I suspect this will be unnecessary with a few more LLM iterations (if even that). You can keep running from how powerful these LLMs are, but I'll just sit and wait for the business/startup apocalypse (which is coming). Jira will not be replaced by something better, it'll be replaced by some weekend project a high schooler makes. The very fact that it's valued at over a billion dollars in the market is just going to be a profound rug pull soon enough. So let me keep it real, I am shorting Atlassian over the next 5 years. Asana is another, there's plenty of startup IPOs that need to be shorted to the ground basically.

hooverd 1y ago
What sort of assurances can I get from that weekend project? I think we're going to build even more obscene towers of complexity as nobody knows how anything works anymore, because they choose not to.
- ivape 1y ago
  What assurances do you get from the internals of an LLM?
  - ofjcihen 1y ago
    I think in your rush to respond you may have accidentally made a solid point against your argument.
    - ivape 1y ago
      No not really. The people that are behind the LLMs don't really know why it keeps getting better with more compute and data, they are literally just trying shit. Yet, the world has seen just how useful the thing is. We don't have any assurances from the damn thing, yet it's the most useful thing we ever made (at least software-wise).
- bdangubic 1y ago
  this is a choice to make though… smart teams will know how everything works…
petersellers 1y ago
If replacing Jira is really as easy as you claim, then it would have happened by now. At the very least, we'd be getting hit by a deluge of HN posts and articles about how to spin up your very own project management application with an LLM. I think that this sentiment, along with all of the hype around AI in general, is failing to grasp a lot of the complexity around software creation. I'm not just talking about writing the code for a new application - I'm talking about maintaining that application, ensuring that it executes reliably and correctly, thinking about the features and UX required to make it as frictionless as possible (and voice input isn't the solution there, I'm very confident of that).
- ivape 1y ago
  You are not understanding what I am saying. I am saying its the calm before the storm before everyone realizes they are paying a bunch of startups for literally no comparative value given AI. First the agile people are going to get fired, then the devs are just going to go "oh yeah I just manage everything in my LLM". I'll be here in a year, we can have this exact discussion again.
  - petersellers 1y ago
    I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with it. "AI" is not going to wholesale replace software development anytime soon, and certainly not within a year's time because of the reasons I mentioned. The way you worded your post made it sound like you believed that capability was already here - nevertheless, whether you think it's here now or will be here in a year, both estimates are way off IMO.
  - theshackleford 1y ago
    > I’ll be here in a year Me too. Mostly so I can laugh though.
subpixel 1y ago
I agree with you to a point. In smaller businesses some roles won’t need to be hired anymore. Meanwhile in big corps, some roles may transition from being the source of presumed expertise to being one neck to choke. I’d love it not to be true, but the truth is Jira is to projects what Slack/Teams are to messaging. When everybody is a project manager Jira gets paid more, not less.
zelphirkalt 1y ago
If there was only one consequence, and that consequence is Jira and Atlassian being destroyed, then I am all for it! Realistically though, they might incorporate that high schooler's software into Jira, to make it even more bloated and they will sell it to your employer soon enough! Then team lead Chris will enter your birthday and your vacation days in it too, to enable it to also do vacation planning, without asking you. Next thing is, that Atlassian sells you out and you receive unsolicited AI calls for your holiday planning.

by ivape 1y ago

hooverd 1y ago

What sort of assurances can I get from that weekend project? I think we're going to build even more obscene towers of complexity as nobody knows how anything works anymore, because they choose not to.

ivape 1y ago
What assurances do you get from the internals of an LLM?
- ofjcihen 1y ago
  I think in your rush to respond you may have accidentally made a solid point against your argument.
  - ivape 1y ago
    No not really. The people that are behind the LLMs don't really know why it keeps getting better with more compute and data, they are literally just trying shit. Yet, the world has seen just how useful the thing is. We don't have any assurances from the damn thing, yet it's the most useful thing we ever made (at least software-wise).
bdangubic 1y ago
this is a choice to make though… smart teams will know how everything works…

petersellers 1y ago

If replacing Jira is really as easy as you claim, then it would have happened by now. At the very least, we'd be getting hit by a deluge of HN posts and articles about how to spin up your very own project management application with an LLM. I think that this sentiment, along with all of the hype around AI in general, is failing to grasp a lot of the complexity around software creation. I'm not just talking about writing the code for a new application - I'm talking about maintaining that application, ensuring that it executes reliably and correctly, thinking about the features and UX required to make it as frictionless as possible (and voice input isn't the solution there, I'm very confident of that).

ivape 1y ago
You are not understanding what I am saying. I am saying its the calm before the storm before everyone realizes they are paying a bunch of startups for literally no comparative value given AI. First the agile people are going to get fired, then the devs are just going to go "oh yeah I just manage everything in my LLM". I'll be here in a year, we can have this exact discussion again.
- petersellers 1y ago
  I understand what you are saying, I just don't agree with it. "AI" is not going to wholesale replace software development anytime soon, and certainly not within a year's time because of the reasons I mentioned. The way you worded your post made it sound like you believed that capability was already here - nevertheless, whether you think it's here now or will be here in a year, both estimates are way off IMO.
- theshackleford 1y ago
  > I’ll be here in a year Me too. Mostly so I can laugh though.

subpixel 1y ago

I agree with you to a point. In smaller businesses some roles won’t need to be hired anymore. Meanwhile in big corps, some roles may transition from being the source of presumed expertise to being one neck to choke. I’d love it not to be true, but the truth is Jira is to projects what Slack/Teams are to messaging. When everybody is a project manager Jira gets paid more, not less.

zelphirkalt 1y ago

If there was only one consequence, and that consequence is Jira and Atlassian being destroyed, then I am all for it! Realistically though, they might incorporate that high schooler's software into Jira, to make it even more bloated and they will sell it to your employer soon enough! Then team lead Chris will enter your birthday and your vacation days in it too, to enable it to also do vacation planning, without asking you. Next thing is, that Atlassian sells you out and you receive unsolicited AI calls for your holiday planning.