You can pick and choose problems from history where folk belief was wrong: WW1 vs. Y2K. This isn't very informative. Indeed, engaging in this argument-by-analo

You can pick and choose problems from history where folk belief was wrong: WW1 vs. Y2K. This isn't very informative. Indeed, engaging in this argument-by-analoguy betrays a lack of actual analysis, credible evidence and justification for a position. Arguing "by analogy" in this way, which picks and chooses an analogy, just restates your position -- it doesnt give anyone reasons to believe it.